The question of the development of the Moroccan economy over the coming years has been urgently presented for some time. How will it grow by 2030 and beyond? Is it at the same level as it has been for two decades, that is, at a rate not exceeding 4 percent, or will it grow by more than that, steadily, and over a period of at least a decade? Is it possible to develop a future vision for Morocco 2030? What opportunities are available to double the gross domestic product to exceed $300 billion per year? What risks might hinder this development by the year 2030? What about environmental degradation and its impact on lifestyle and economy? Will the resilience of the local population strengthen, or will it try to find refuge in cities that are currently increasingly crowded? How about 6 years from now?
To answer these questions, it is necessary to consider the current situation of the Moroccan economy and public finances, the extent of the effectiveness of the reforms that have been adopted so far, as well as possible future scenarios in their relationship with the risks and challenges facing the development and growth of the Moroccan economy.
If we focus our attention on the state of public finances between 2023 and 2024, we find that the crisis is still present, but state intervention is also very strong. This is the so-called “counter-cyclical” approach. Public investments were aimed at helping farmers confront the repercussions of the drought crisis, and intervening to reduce the burden of inflation on purchasing power, by supporting transportation, as well as financing water desalination policy, connecting basins, and building dams to confront the acute water shortage. The cost of the Al Haouz earthquake, reconstruction and construction requires $12 billion over 5 years, part of which has been allocated in the 2024 budget.
The anti-cyclical approach makes it possible to mitigate the impact of the crisis, and gives the possibility of a rapid resumption after its causes disappear and its effects subside. However, its impact remains relative due to the structural weaknesses that characterize the Moroccan economy, such as the low competitiveness of entrepreneurship, the chronic shyness of national capital, the weakness of economic and institutional governance, the rigidity and exploitation of the labor market, the lack of integration of women into the labor market, and the high environmental bill to more than 3 percent of the country. Raw domestic product. Therefore, the Moroccan economy is characterized by quite solidity. However, chronic challenges limit his ability to truly take off.
On the other hand, political reforms over two decades have provided a kind of hope and mobilization in favor of change. But what we are observing recently is a kind of decline in confidence in what is political, and the rise of a populist tendency fueled by digital chaos based on vainism and free prejudice against what is political, and the complaint of many classes because they do not feel that they have reaped the fruits of reform in their standard of living, which means that economic reforms may not Find the political support necessary to make it successful.
Therefore, any future economic policy must be accompanied by profound political and social reforms to create the conditions for an economic take-off in which everyone will participate, and that will lay the foundation for Morocco’s entry into the club of emerging countries by 2035. Establishing an integrated system for comprehensive social coverage, which is a project that the Moroccan King is overseeing, would change the equation. Social positive and irreversible change. Achieving the success of reforming the educational system by supporting the conditions for creating a school of excellence, raising the quality and cost-effectiveness of education, and improving the quality of health services and treatment infrastructure to raise the quality and efficiency of the health supply, are two projects on which the completion of the new social state depends.
In addition to the political and social conditions for take-off, there are economic reforms necessary to achieve growth capable of creating wealth and job opportunities and bridging social and spatial disparities.
The success of sectoral policies in the fields of agriculture, industry, tourism, energy transition and digital transition requires solving the problem of water and real estate for agriculture, strengthening production chains and supporting the national product for industry, investing in the quality of services and supporting small and medium enterprises for tourism, and integrating renewable energies into the national electricity grid for the energy transition. And quickly achieve true governance through comprehensive digitization. These things seem simple and easy, but they are complicated and may take a long time. However, the fundamental transformation in the Moroccan economy must occur at the level of governance, where all administrative obstacles that hinder private initiative, investment, and economic activity are neutralized, in light of the true rule of law, the presence of fair and effective justice, and a real definition of roles within the framework of a fair system of responsibility and accountability. The governance project is essential for citizens and investors to feel safe and secure, to ensure everyone’s confidence in the role of institutions, and to free energies to contribute to a real economic take-off.
The governance project requires strengthening institutions, investing in institutional capital, supporting the state of rights and law, and strengthening the role of parties, parliament, civil society, administration, and territorial regions and groups. This is in addition to supporting and empowering economic governance by ensuring transparency and ensuring equal access to information, finance and real estate, ensuring fair competition, combating bribery and corruption, and liberating the economic market from aspects of rentierism, nepotism, clientelism and monopoly. All of this is called institutional capital, and it would contribute directly to raising the growth rate.
Add to this the need to liberalize the labor market and make it more flexible without losing workers’ rights, especially within the framework of enacting a policy of compensation for loss of employment, through the establishment of self-employment, temporary work, training, improving entry and exit conditions, supporting women, and exploiting artificial intelligence and the digital revolution. In order to create new opportunities, support, train and redeploy human resources.
But proactive management of the risks facing Morocco is also necessary for the success of reform.
The first of which is reducing water waste, through desalinating water, connecting basins, rationalizing use, and preserving water wealth. Secondly, strengthening the resilience of the local population to adapt to environmental changes. Third, confronting populism by restoring confidence in institutions and in what is political. Fourth, the success of diplomatic efforts aimed at affirming the Moroccanity of the Sahara and supporting integration into the African and Arab region and integration with their economies. Fifth, diversify markets and support the internal market to reduce dependence on Europe. Sixth, the success of the education and health reform projects.
Finally, reducing social and spatial disparities through a voluntary policy of direct transfers and focusing public investment on remote and marginalized areas.
*Quoted from newspaperThe Middle East“.
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