Multipolarity and the Erosion of Nuclear Deterrence

The shift toward a multipolar international system is eroding the foundations of nuclear restraint and fundamentally reshaping the logic of deterrence, according to an analysis by Raphaël Dosson.

Dosson argues that multipolarity is not simply transforming the security environment but is actively undermining the mechanisms that previously maintained nuclear stability.

This shift is evident in the escalating tensions in the Gulf region, where U.S. Military campaigns against Iran intensified throughout 2025 and evolved into full-scale war in 2026.

The central objective of these U.S. Operations has been the prevention of nuclear proliferation. The analysis suggests that the United States views a nuclear-armed Iran as a threat that would emerge as a dominant regional power, jeopardize U.S. Allies, and exert control over critical energy routes, thereby destabilizing the regional balance of power.

This strategic approach contrasts with theoretical arguments regarding the stabilizing effects of proliferation.

In 2012, Kenneth Waltz proposed a counter-intuitive theory that more may be better, suggesting that the proliferation of nuclear weapons could actually enhance regional stability.

According to the Waltz perspective, a nuclear-armed Iran could have stabilized the region by restoring the balance of power and counterbalancing the nuclear monopoly held by Israel. This theory posited that nuclearization would induce greater strategic caution, keep conflicts limited below the threshold of escalation, and satisfy Iran’s security imperatives, which would in turn reduce the incentives for revisionist behavior.

However, Dosson questions whether this logic remains applicable in the current security landscape. He argues that the structural mechanisms theorized by Waltz produce different expectations as the global structure shifts toward multipolarity.

As of May 2026, the escalation of conflict in the Gulf region has not resulted in a traditional global conflict. Instead, it has evolved into what is described as a system of world wars.

This system is defined by several key characteristics:

• This proves conditioned by multipolar structures.
• It is characterized by diffuse, asymmetric, and interconnected conflicts.
• It links multiple regional crises and theaters of war.
• It involves great power competition acting both directly, and indirectly.

The analysis concludes that these multipolar structures carry new and significant implications for the future of system-wide proliferation and the viability of existing deterrence strategies.

By reshaping the logic of deterrence, multipolarity is not merely transforming the security environment—it is eroding the very foundations of nuclear restraint.

Raphaël Dosson