New App to Enable Event Forecasting via Points-Based System

Meta is developing a prediction market application named “Arena” that allows users to forecast future events using a points-based system instead of cash wagers, according to a June 23, 2026, report from the New York Times. The project enters a growing sector of event-forecasting platforms.

The New York Times cited people familiar with the matter to confirm that Meta is building the app to let users predict outcomes of various events. Unlike traditional prediction markets, Arena will not utilize financial bets, relying instead on a points-based mechanism for its users.

How does the Arena app function?

Arena operates as a forecasting tool where users allocate points to specific outcomes of future events. These points serve as the primary currency for the platform’s prediction system. The New York Times report indicates this structure removes the financial risk associated with cash-based betting.

By using points, Meta avoids the legal and regulatory requirements typically imposed on gambling or financial trading platforms. This allows the company to implement a prediction market model without requiring users to deposit capital or risk monetary loss.

How does Arena differ from other prediction markets?

The points-based model of Arena contrasts with the financial structures of existing industry leaders. Most established prediction markets use real-world value to incentivize accuracy and determine the probability of an event.

Polymarket, one of the largest decentralized prediction markets, utilizes cryptocurrency for its wagers. Kalshi, a U.S.-based exchange, uses cash contracts that are regulated as financial instruments. Arena’s removal of cash and crypto wagers separates it from these high-stakes platforms.

This distinction changes the user incentive from financial profit to social or competitive standing. While cash markets provide a “wisdom of the crowd” metric based on financial skin in the game, Arena’s model focuses on gamified forecasting.

What are the regulatory implications of a points-based system?

The decision to use points rather than cash likely mitigates exposure to oversight from financial regulators. In the United States, the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) oversees prediction markets that offer cash settlements, often classifying them as event contracts.

Cash-based platforms frequently face legal challenges regarding whether their contracts constitute illegal gambling or unregulated commodities trading. By stripping the financial element, Meta’s Arena does not function as a financial exchange, which reduces the likelihood of CFTC intervention.

Why is Meta entering the prediction market sector?

The New York Times report describes the prediction market sector as “booming.” This growth is driven by an increasing interest in using crowdsourced data to predict political elections, sporting events, and economic shifts.

Integrating a prediction market into its ecosystem allows Meta to capture user engagement through a highly interactive format. Forecasting events creates a recurring loop of user activity as participants check outcomes and update their predictions.

This move follows a broader trend of tech companies integrating gamification into social interaction. By providing a platform for users to prove their foresight through points, Meta creates a new layer of social competition and data collection on user interests.