New Dataset Maps 26.4 Million Americans Eligible for Lung Cancer Screening
- Researchers released a public dataset on October 9 that identifies approximately 26.4 million U.S.
- A research group from the University of Minnesota in Minneapolis developed the dataset to fill a critical geographic data gap for local screening resources.
- Determining eligibility requires a quantitative smoking history of a minimum of 20 pack-years of cigarette exposure.
Researchers released a public dataset on October 9 that identifies approximately 26.4 million U.S. adults aged 50 to 80 who are eligible for low-dose CT lung cancer screening, mapped down to the neighborhood level. The study, published in the journal Cancer, aims to direct screening resources and improve access.
Mapping Screening Eligibility Across Neighborhoods
A research group from the University of Minnesota in Minneapolis developed the dataset to fill a critical geographic data gap for local screening resources. Lead author David Haynes and colleagues noted that current lung cancer screening uptake remains below 20% of eligible individuals, largely because of eligibility barriers.
Determining eligibility requires a quantitative smoking history of a minimum of 20 pack-years of cigarette exposure. This history is frequently missing from clinical records and absent in large health survey datasets.
Integrating Three Distinct Health Datasets
To overcome missing clinical data, the researchers combined three separate data sources. They integrated the 2016–2020 Behavioral Risk Factor Surveillance System data for state-level smoking prevalence and the 2016–2020 American Community Survey data for census tract-level demographic counts.
The team also incorporated the CISNET Lung Working Group Smoking History Generator. This simulation tool models birth cohort-specific pack-year smoking histories by age, sex, and race or ethnicity.
Populations Identified by Smoking Status and Demographics
Applying this modeling approach to the 2020 census, the study estimated that 26.4 million U.S. adults aged 50 to 80 meet the screening criteria. Among that eligible population, 16.1 million continue to smoke, while 10.3 million are former smokers.
American Indian and Alaska Native adults have the highest proportion eligible at 34%. By comparison, roughly 25% of white and Black Americans in the same age range meet the criteria.
Specific applications of this work include planning service locations and the capacity of LCS services, including low-dose computed tomography and smoking cessation resources. Other efforts could use these data to identify geographic areas or particular populations to direct marketing and resources about LCS services. Last, the dataset provides a useful foundation for estimating the uptake of LCS screening services at the national and local levels
University of Minnesota research group