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New hostage deal instead of offensive in Rafah?

Next week could be fateful for Israel and the Palestinians. Will there be a ceasefire in the Gaza war? Or will Israel begin its long-announced military operation in Rafah?

Before renewed crisis talks about the Gaza war, US President Joe Biden called for the expansion of humanitarian aid in the sealed-off coastal strip. In a phone call with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, Biden emphasized that recent progress in aid deliveries must be continued and increased in full coordination with humanitarian organizations, the White House said. Biden referred, among other things, to the preparations for the opening of new border crossings in northern Israel starting this week.

Israel is under massive international pressure to allow more aid deliveries into the sealed-off area on the Mediterranean, where the Israeli military has been fighting against the Islamist Hamas since October. The country recently opened border crossings for aid deliveries. The United Nations has recently confirmed an increase in arriving trucks, but is calling on Israel to take further steps to enable more aid deliveries.

At a meeting of several Western and Arab foreign ministers in Riyadh on Monday, new efforts are expected to be made for a ceasefire in the Gaza war and the release of hostages held by Hamas. Among those expected are US Secretary of State Antony Blinken and Federal Foreign Minister Annalena Baerbock. In Cairo, a Hamas delegation also wants to hand over its response to a proposal for a ceasefire.

Can the offensive in Rafah still be averted?

A senior Hamas official announced on Telegram yesterday that the Islamist organization would examine an Israeli proposal and provide an answer. Israel expects this by Monday, according to Israeli television. Israel’s Foreign Minister Israel Katz said Israel was ready to postpone the military operation in Rafah if a hostage deal was reached.

According to Israeli media, the current draft deal is initially a limited agreement that stipulates that only some female, elderly and sick hostages would be released. The number of days of a possible ceasefire depends on the number of hostages that Hamas releases, reported the news portal Axios. Hamas has recently called for a permanent ceasefire, which Israel rejects. It is feared that many of the 133 hostages held by Hamas are no longer alive.

“Axios” reported, citing two high-ranking Israeli government officials, that Israel was prepared to compromise under the new proposal – for example on the return of civilians to the northern Gaza Strip. This includes a withdrawal of the Israeli military from the corridor that divides the coastal area and prevents displaced Palestinians from returning to the north.

The focus of the talks had recently moved from Qatar to Egypt. In initial interviews with Israeli media on Saturday, Qatari Foreign Ministry spokesman Majid al-Ansari accused Israel and Hamas of not being decisive enough to push for a deal. Every time an agreement seemed within reach, there was sabotage, he said. “From both sides.”

Israeli minister threatens end of government

According to the military, Israeli Chief of General Staff Herzi Halevi has approved plans to continue the Gaza war. According to an army spokesman, he discussed the plans with senior officers in the Southern Command. No further details were given. Halevi had already approved further steps to continue the Gaza war last Sunday.

Israeli media also sees the decision as an endorsement of the planned offensive in the city of Rafah in the Gaza Strip. There are hundreds of thousands of Palestinian internally displaced people in the city. Israel’s allies have therefore repeatedly warned against a Rafah offensive.

Israel’s right-wing extremist Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich had previously threatened to end the government if a proposed hostage deal was implemented and a military operation in Rafah was stopped. In a video address to Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, Smotrich said: “Agreeing to the Egyptian deal is a humiliating surrender and gives the Nazis (Hamas) a victory on the backs of hundreds of heroic soldiers who died in battle.” He described the approval at the same time as a “death sentence for the hostages and an immediate existential threat to the State of Israel.”

If Netanyahu “hoists the white flag and revokes the order to immediately capture Rafah,” a government with him at the helm would “no longer have the right to exist,” Smotrich said. He described the operation in Rafah as necessary to destroy Hamas, restore security to residents of Israel’s Gaza border areas “and repatriate all of our kidnapped brothers and sisters.” Smotrich spoke of a “fateful moment for the people of Israel.” He called on Netanyahu to act boldly.