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NFL to PGA: Sports Economics Expert on Golf’s Future & Lessons from Football

by David Thompson - Sports Editor

The PGA Tour isn’t going to outdraw American football anytime soon. But as the NFL season winds down and with Super Bowl LIX looming, the golf world is looking at how it might capitalize on the shifting sports landscape. The appointment of Brian Rolapp, the NFL’s former Chief Media and Business Officer, as the PGA Tour’s CEO signals a clear intention: to borrow lessons from the most powerful sports league in the United States.

Rolapp’s arrival, confirmed in June 2024, wasn’t a conventional golf hire. He has no prior experience in professional golf, but his two decades with the NFL, and his position as a potential successor to Commissioner Roger Goodell, made him an attractive candidate. The goal, according to sources close to the negotiations, is to inject the stability and revenue generation of the NFL into a golf world grappling with the emergence of LIV Golf and a fractured competitive structure.

One of the key strategies Rolapp is exploring is scarcity. The PGA Tour is moving towards a model with fewer full-time playing privileges and a potentially reduced tournament schedule. The idea, as discussed in a recent interview with sports economist David Berri, is that limiting access and events could increase their perceived value. “If you make it more scarce, then people are going to value more what they do get to see,” Berri explained. However, he cautioned that This represents a relatively small change unlikely to dramatically alter the sport’s overall appeal.

Berri highlighted a fundamental difference between the NFL and golf: television appeal. “The NFL is a very, very good television sport,” he said. “I don’t know if golf has quite the same television appeal. There’s a ceiling to how many people are going to tune in to watch golf.” He pointed out that while golf enjoys a dedicated following, particularly among executives, it hasn’t consistently reached the viewership numbers of major sports like football.

A potential solution, Berri suggested, is to adapt the format of events. “Create events where instead of it’s a four-day tournament, go, OK, we’re going to do a three-hour [event].” He proposed shorter, more condensed tournaments to attract a wider audience, acknowledging the challenge of maintaining viewer engagement over four days. He also floated the idea of creating specialized courses designed to highlight specific skills, offering a more dynamic and engaging viewing experience.

The rise of platforms like YouTube is also playing a crucial role in the evolving golf landscape. The success of content creators like Good Good, Bob Does Sports, and Grant Horvat demonstrates the power of direct-to-consumer engagement. Berri drew a parallel to the rise of K-pop, arguing that YouTube allows audiences to choose what they want to watch, bypassing traditional network gatekeepers. “You’re letting the viewers pick what they want,” he said, “and you’re going to find faster what they like and what they don’t like.”

However, translating this success to the PGA Tour requires a shift in approach. Berri emphasized the importance of creating events that appeal to casual fans, not just hardcore golf enthusiasts. “You have to create events that bring in casual fans,” he said. “You can’t focus on the hardcore fans.” He suggested loosening restrictions, such as allowing more audience participation and noise during play, to create a more lively and accessible atmosphere.

The situation with LIV Golf and Saudi Arabian investment adds another layer of complexity. While the PGA Tour initially resisted LIV’s challenge, a potential partnership remains on the table. Berri questioned the long-term viability of LIV’s model, arguing that simply replicating the PGA Tour format without a strong tradition or unique appeal is unlikely to succeed. “If you just do exactly the same thing, but there’s no tradition, well, I don’t think you’re going to have any audience then,” he stated.

The financial backing of the Saudi Public Investment Fund (PIF), with over $1 trillion in assets, gives LIV significant leverage. Berri suggested that the Saudis aren’t necessarily focused on profit, but rather on gaining a foothold in the sports world and attracting attention. “They have an immense amount of money,” he said. “They can do it indefinitely if they want, if that’s what they like.”

The contract negotiations with players like Bryson DeChambeau further illustrate the unique dynamics at play. With the backing of the PIF, DeChambeau could potentially demand an unprecedented sum of money. Berri jokingly suggested a $2 billion asking price, arguing that the Saudis’ vast resources allow them to operate outside the traditional constraints of financial logic. “I would demand $2 billion,” he said. “I would just throw it out there. You have $1 trillion. What do you got?”

Looking ahead, the LPGA is also seeking to capitalize on the growing popularity of women’s sports. The success of Caitlin Clark in the WNBA, fueled by increased media coverage, provides a blueprint for the LPGA to follow. Berri emphasized the importance of telling players’ stories and creating emotional connections with audiences. “The advantage of golf is the same advantage tennis has,” he said. “The athletes are individuals and therefore the audience relates to them very rapidly.”

the PGA Tour’s success in emulating the NFL model will depend on its ability to adapt, innovate, and connect with a broader audience. Rolapp’s challenge is not simply to replicate the NFL’s structure, but to leverage its lessons to create a more compelling and sustainable future for professional golf.

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