Nigeria Oil Revenue Misses Target – 63% Deficit
- What: Nigeria's federal government earned N9.32 trillion in gross oil revenue during the first half of 2025.
- Why it Matters: A important shortfall (63.49%) against the projected N25.52 trillion highlights Nigeria's fiscal vulnerabilities and dependence on oil.
- What's Next: Continued monitoring of production levels and revenue collection is crucial, alongside diversification efforts.
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Nigeria’s Oil Revenue Falls Short in First Half of 2025
Overview of the Revenue Shortfall
The Federal Government of Nigeria experienced a substantial shortfall in crude oil revenue during the first half of 2025. According to the second quarter Budget Performance Report released by the Budget Office of the Federation, gross oil revenue totaled N9.32 trillion between January and June 2025. This represents a significant decline compared to the pro-rated budget projection of N25.52 trillion for the same period.
The N16.20 trillion deficit equates to a 63.49% gap between projected and actual oil revenue, underscoring Nigeria’s ongoing fiscal challenges and its heavy reliance on oil income. Despite a slight improvement in crude oil production, levels remained below the benchmark established in the 2025 budget.
Crude Oil Production and Benchmarks
Nigeria’s average crude oil production for the first half of 2025 was 1.68 million barrels per day (mbpd). This figure fell short of the 2.12 mbpd benchmark used for estimating oil revenue in the 2025 budget. The production gap directly impacted revenue inflows into the Federation Account.
Though, there was a gradual improvement in output. Production increased by 0.08 mbpd from the 1.6 mbpd recorded in the first quarter of 2025. This also represents a 0.27 mbpd increase compared to the 1.41 mbpd produced during the corresponding period in 2024.
| Period | Crude Oil Production (mbpd) |
|---|---|
| First Half 2025 (Average) | 1.68 |
| First Quarter 2025 | 1.60 |
| First Half 2024 | 1.41 |
| 2025 Budget benchmark | 2.12 |
Revenue Comparison: 2024 vs. 2025
Despite failing to meet the projected revenue target, the first half of 2025 showed an improvement compared to the same period in 2024. The government earned N2.78 trillion more than in the first half of 2024, representing a year-on-year increase of 42.59%.
The Budget Office attributes this improvement to increased crude output and enhanced collection of petroleum profit tax and royalties. Though, these gains were insufficient to offset the overall shortfall against the 2025 budget estimate.
The Budget Office report explicitly stated: “gross oil revenue amounting to N9.32 trillion was collected in the first half of 2025 as against N25.52 trillion pro-rate budget projection for the period. This denotes a decrease of N16.20 trillion, or 63.49 per cent, from the 2025 half-year budget estimate. It, however, reflects an increase of N2.78 trillion, or 4