Expert “Little chance of spread to North Korea… No experience of strong control and collective resistance”
Even during the ‘Arab Spring’ of 2011, the third generation hereditary succession went straight
As protests against the high-intensity corona19 (new coronavirus infection) quarantine spread in China, it seems that the North Korean authorities across the border are also keeping an eye on the situation.
On the 29th, Radio Free Asia (RFA), citing a North Korean source in China, reported that North Korean trade executives were keeping a close eye on the protests.
The source said, “If the people of Chosun (North Korea) know that large-scale protests against the Corona 19 containment policy are continuing in large cities in China that are close to us, it will have a great impact on the minds of our residents. “
Lee Hyeon-seung, a North Korea researcher at the Global Peace Institute, also told RFA, “There are an estimated 80,000 to 100,000 North Korean workers (in China).”
Gilbert Burnham, a professor of public health at Johns Hopkins University in the US, also noted that “North Korea’s leaders will be watching the current situation in China closely to see how (the protests in China) end.”
Experts at home and abroad expected that the North Korean authorities would keep an eye on this protest and formulate countermeasures given that, like China, they control residents for reasons such as the COVID-19 quarantine.
This is because no matter how thoroughly North Korea controls it, it cannot prevent the complete transmission back to Korea of what tens of thousands of North Koreans who have been to China have seen and heard. .
Kim In-tae, a researcher at the National Security Strategy Institute, a high-ranking North Korea defector, said in a phone call with Yonhap News that “North Korea will use China as a teacher and take preventive measures.” There is a possibility of access,” he predicted.
Park Won-gon, a professor at Ewha Womans University, said, “Although it is at the intelligence level, there are stories that more than 250,000 people have died from Corona 19.
“As economic difficulties continue, there is still fire (for residents to explode),” he said. “Of course, we will watch the situation in China consciously.
However, the general analysis is that the possibility of similar protests in North Korea in China is rare.
In the first place, it is difficult for news from China to spread widely, and although the North Korean authorities have considerable control over the population, the residents have no experience of collective resistance.
In fact, even when dictators in the Middle East and North Africa were ousted one after another by democratization in the Arab Spring of 2011, North Korea was ‘no wind’.
Although 2011 was the year of the death of North Korean leader Kim Jong-il, North Korea smoothly transitioned to a three-generation hereditary succession system with Kim Jong-un as leader.
Kim In-tae, a researcher at the Institute for National Security Strategy, said, “The North Korean authorities enforce a higher threefold ideological, institutional and legal control to monitor every movement of residents.” he noted
Research Fellow Kim said, “Unlike China, which is exposed to global trends to some extent and has an awareness of democracy, North Korea is fundamentally blocked from outside information, so it is impossible to know what which is happening in neighboring countries.” also notable that there is no experience of protesting.”
Professor Park Won-gon said, “I have conducted a hypothetical scenario study on sudden changes in North Korea in the past,” and presented that it was concluded that a popular uprising is possible only when there are economic difficulties similar to the ‘Arduous March’. in the 1990s overlapped with epidemics.
Professor Park said, “North Korea is currently claiming to have overcome Corona 19, so the possibility of (a popular uprising) seems low.” The power does not exist,” he said.
/happy news
