Northern Lights Forecast: Valentine’s Day Aurora Viewing Guide 2024

Aurora Watch Issued for Valentine’s Weekend Across Northern U.S.

Skywatchers across a dozen northern states are poised for a potential Valentine’s Day weekend treat: a display of the aurora borealis, commonly known as the northern lights. The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s (NOAA) Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC) is forecasting increased auroral activity on February 14 and February 15, with Sunday night offering the most promising viewing opportunities.

A G1 geomagnetic storm is expected to trigger auroras in as many as 12 states, including Alaska, Washington, Idaho, Montana, Wyoming, North and South Dakota, Minnesota, Wisconsin, Michigan, New York, and Maine. The forecasted aurora view line, according to NOAA, indicates the southernmost extent where the lights may be visible.

The Kp index, a measure of geomagnetic activity, is predicted to peak at 4.67 on a scale of 9. A higher Kp index suggests the aurora may be visible at lower latitudes than usual. This weekend’s activity comes as we approach aurora season, a period of increased auroral displays that occurs around the spring and fall equinoxes. March 20 marks the spring equinox.

EarthSky.org explains that fluctuations in the sun’s magnetic field, particularly the north-south component, are largest during the equinoxes. Geomagnetic storms are most frequent when this solar wind component opposes Earth’s own magnetic field, creating a temporary opening that allows charged particles to flow more easily toward the poles, resulting in the mesmerizing auroral displays.

For those hoping to witness the spectacle, experts recommend venturing outdoors between 10 p.m. and 2 a.m. local time. Finding a location away from city lights, with a clear view of the northern horizon, is crucial. Allowing your eyes to adjust to the darkness for at least 20 minutes is also recommended.

While the aurora can sometimes be seen with the naked eye, using a smartphone camera can enhance visibility. Cameras are often more sensitive to faint light than human vision, making it easier to capture the subtle colors and patterns of the aurora.

The NOAA Space Weather Prediction Center continues to monitor solar activity and will provide updates as the weekend progresses. Those interested in tracking the aurora’s potential visibility can consult the interactive aurora map powered by NOAA data at auroramap.org. This map displays the Kp index, solar wind conditions, and aurora probability predictions in real-time.

While auroral activity is inherently unpredictable, the current forecast offers a promising opportunity for residents of the northern U.S. To experience the beauty of the northern lights this Valentine’s Day weekend. The combination of a geomagnetic storm and favorable seasonal conditions could create a memorable celestial display.