Chonnithis Chaisingthong Krungthai COMPASS
October exports turned negative for the first time in 20 months.
The value of exports in October was 21,772 million dollars, shrinking 4.4% YoY from the previous month’s growth of 7.8% YoY, which was the first contraction in 20 months as exports of all major categories returned to shrinking industrial and agricultural products This followed a slowdown in demand in trading partners in line with weaker economic activities in markets key countries, including the United States, the European Union, China and Japan, with exports in the first 10 months growing 9.1% 56.9%, slowing down before. a month when the gold is cut Export value this month shrank 5.3% YoY.
Exportlist of productsSome came back to shrink.
- Exports of manufactured goods returned to contraction. 5% Yes from the previous month which expanded 9.4%YoY Oil-related commodities contracted (-22.8%YoY) for the third straight month following weak global oil prices. Computers and equipment returned to contraction (-27.4%YoY), while iron, steel and other products contracted for the second consecutive month (-13.1%YoY) due to slowing global prices and weakening demand, particularly in China , however, a number of products continued to expand, including automobiles, equipment and parts (+5.1% YoY), gems and jewelry (+5.4% YoY), fax machines, telephones, equipment and parts (+90.6% YoY), air conditioners and parts (+8.5% YoY ).and semiconductors, transistors and diodes (+74.9%YoY), etc.
- Export of agricultural products and contracted agro-industry. 4%YoY Compared to the previous month which has expanded. 1.8%YoY This was due to the continued contraction in exports of rubber (-28.5%YoY), fresh and dried fruit (-34.9%YoY), canned and processed fruit (-11.3%YoY) However, many products continued to expand, particularly rice (+2.8%YoY), chilled/frozen/processed chicken (+38%YoY), cassava (+26.3%YoY), canned and processed seafood (+0.9%YoY), food beverages pets (+ 4.8%YoY)
(+20.3%YoY), etc.
Exportby marketThe majority of them returned to shrink.
- United States : returned to contraction for the first time in 29 months at -9%YoY. equipment and components and radio and television receivers, etc. The products that expanded were fax machines, telephones, semiconductor equipment. transistors and diodes and transformers, etc. (exports for the first 10 months increased by 16.8%)
- China: contracted for the fifth consecutive month at -8.5% YoY The main products that contracted were rubber, plastic pellets, and automobiles, tools and parts, etc. Products that expanded were rubber products, cassava products, and others. motorcycles, etc. (exports in first 10 months contracted -6.1%)
- Japan : contracted for the second consecutive month at -3.1%YoY, with significant restrictions including automobiles, equipment and components, iron, steel and products. and plastic resin, etc. The products that expanded were processed chicken, glass and glass, and chemicals, etc. (exports in the first 10 months grew by 5%).
- EU27: contracted in 6 months at -8% YoY, with major restrictions such as computers, automobiles, and machinery, etc. electrical equipment transformer and components and processed chicken, etc. (exports in the first 10 months increased by 6.8%)
- ASEAN5 : Returned to contraction for the first time in 18 months at -1%YoY Important products that contracted were computers. tools and components, and chemicals, etc. Products that expanded were printed circuit boards, games and jewellery, etc. (exports in the first 10 months grew by 16.5%).
The October import value was 22,369 million dollars, contracted 2.1% YoY from an increase of 15.1% YoY in the previous month. of capital goods (-16.4%YoY) which continued to contract and reverse the contraction in consumer goods
(-0.4%YoY) and raw and semi-finished products (-0.4%YoY), while fuel products grew more slowly (+7.5%YoY) Total imports in the first 10 months increased by 18.3% The trade balance increased It was the 7th straight month at -596 million dollars, with the 10-month cumulative trade deficit of -15,581 million dollars.
Implication:
- Exports contracted in line with regional exports which weakened due to the impact of the global economic slowdown. Exports of countries in the region began to slow down due to weak global demand. Exports from ASEAN countries such as Malaysia, Indonesia and Singapore showed a clear sign of slowing due to the impact of the global economy and the slowdown in commodity prices such as palm oil and steel prices, and Taiwan contracted from the decline in semiconductor exports. , especially exports to China due to weak demand. Krungthai COMPASS estimates that the global economic slowdown will affect exporters. Thailand, both from the demand side that slowed down. Including falling prices, especially in goods. which is in line with the region’s exports
- Keep an eye on the spread of COVID-19 New waves in China could hurt exporters to China amid slowing economy The spread of COVID-19 In China, the outbreak was back in November with the daily number of new infections exceeding 30,000. This is the highest record of the epidemic from the previous cases that were serious in April. The Chinese authorities have implemented lockdown measures in many areas with a total epidemic, such as Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou, etc. It is expected if the number of people The continued increase in infections and the long lockdown measures the Chinese authorities are taking to contain the epidemic will affect China’s consumption and exports to China more than expected. This will exacerbate the ongoing contraction in exports to China. Among the economic problems China is facing pressure in many areas, such as problems in the real estate sector. geopolitical conflict Including the trend against Zero Covid measures which increases the uncertainty for the Chinese economy.
