OECD “Global economy, moderate growth this year, further contraction next year”

5.9% last year, 3.1% this year, and 2.2% next year… United States, 5.9% last year, 1.8% this year, 0.5% next year
Inflation will also slow slightly, but exceed the 2% target by 2024.
Global economic growth next year will be led by emerging Asian economies, accounting for three quarters.

[AP/=뉴시스]Reporter Yoo Se-jin = The global economy, wracked by high interest rates, inflation, and war with Ukraine, will only grow moderately this year and will contract further in 2023, the Institute on for Economic Cooperation and Development in Paris (OECD) said on the 22nd

According to the OECD, the global economy will grow by 3.1% this year and slow down significantly by 5.9% in 2021. Next year, the OECD predicts that it will worsen with growth of 2.2%.

“We are not predicting a global recession, but it is also a very challenging prospect,” said Matthias Koman, Director General of the OECD. No one will be comforted by the 2.2% growth forecast,” he said.

The OECD said that a series of interest rate hikes to control inflation, such as the US Federal Reserve raising its benchmark interest rate six times this year, will almost paralyze the US economy, and the US economy has fallen sharply this year from 5.9% last year to 1.8% It is predicted that it will stop growing, 0.5% next year, and 1% growth in 2024.

Many economists share this grim view. The OECD did not predict a recession, but many economists expected the US to go into recession in 2023, albeit slightly.

The OECD also predicts that inflation in the US will slow but remain well above the Fed’s annual target of 2% through 2023 and 2024.

For the 19 countries in the euro area that suffered an energy crisis due to the war in Ukraine, the OECD predicted that the growth rate would be just 0.5% next year and then rise slightly to 1.4% in 2024. Inflation is expected to Europe, which was 2.6% last year, rising to 8.3% this year and 6.8% in 2023.

Meanwhile, while the US and European economies are failing, the OECD estimates that these countries will account for three-fourths of global growth. For example, the OECD predicts that the Indian economy will grow by 6.6% this year and 5.7% next year.

On the other hand, the Chinese economy, which until recently boasted annual double-digit growth, is expected to grow by only 3.3% this year and 4.6% in 2023. China, the world’s second-largest economy, has suffered from a real estate market weak, high debt, and a ‘zero corona’ policy that has hit trade hard.

* picture explanation

[빌헬름스하펜(독일)=AP/뉴시스]The container ship ‘OOCL United Kingdom’ is moored at the Wilhelmshaven Container Terminal in Germany on the 15th. The Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) in Paris predicted on the 22nd that the global economy, which has been shattered by high interest rates, inflation and the war against Ukraine, will only grow moderate this year and will shrink further. in 2023.

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