After the weekend and holidays, thousands of passengers across the United States were stranded at airports, and flight cancellations and delays continued until Monday. However, several experts interviewed by Fortune magazine stated that the situation will improve by the end of next week.
Data from FlightAware.com, a website that tracks global flight operations, shows that as of noon on Monday, more than 950 flights to and from the United States were cancelled, and more than 2,400 flights were delayed.
FlightAware data shows that 18% of Alaska Airlines’ flights are cancelled, and another 12% of flights are delayed. JetBlue and Spirit were also greatly affected, with 6% of flights cancelled and more than 10% of flights delayed.
To put it another way, according to the Bureau of Transportation Statistics, only 2.15% of U.S. flights were cancelled in 2019.
A large number of flights have been cancelled
Airlines are affected differently, and so are passengers.
For example, a United Airlines spokesperson told Fortune that the airline cancelled 115 flights on Monday due to staffing issues related to the Omi Keron case, accounting for approximately 2.9 of the more than 4,000 scheduled flights. %. (The ratio calculated by FlightAware is 4%.)
The company said in a statement: “The surge in Omi Keron cases in the United States has a direct impact on our crew and staff.” The company said that it has contacted passengers in advance on the weekend to inform them whether their flights will be cancelled. There is time to rebook tickets or adjust plans. It also stated that so far, about 50% of its passengers have arrived at their destinations in advance, or arrived at their destinations within 4 hours of the scheduled flight.
On Monday, American Airlines also cancelled about 2% of its flights. A spokesperson for American Airlines said in a statement provided to Fortune magazine: “It is a pity that some employees have applied for sick leave due to COVID-19, which has caused us to make a difficult decision to cancel in advance the issue originally scheduled to be issued today. Multiple flights.”
A Southwest Airlines spokesperson told Fortune on Monday that during this year’s holiday season, the airline did not experience operational problems due to the outbreak among its staff. The company stated that this morning, “of the more than 3,600 scheduled flights, we cancelled about 50 flights due to winter weather.”
Alaska Airlines told Fortune that the cold winter weather in the Pacific Northwest has had a serious impact on Alaska Airlines’ operations. So far, the company has cancelled more than 248 flights from Seattle on Monday and 120 on Monday.
Delta said on Monday that due to winter weather affecting its shipping centers in Minneapolis-St. Paul, Seattle, and Salt Lake City (SLC), and the Omi Keron variant continues to affect the company’s operations, the The company expects to cancel 4,166 scheduled mainline flights and 200 of Delta Connection flights.
The dawn of hope
Helena Baker, an airline analyst at the securities company Cowen, said that with the widespread spread of the Omi Keron variant, the crew of American Airlines has also been affected. The crew do not want to be trapped somewhere, because current epidemic prevention regulations require people who test positive for the new crown to be quarantined for 10 days, which is also one of the reasons for the airline’s problems.
But this situation may be changing. Delta Air Lines requested that the quarantine period be shortened to 5 days, which Baker believes can solve some of the problems. Replacing aircraft can also alleviate the shortage of personnel.
Baker told Fortune: “We believe that in the short term, strong demand and high flight cancellation rates may cause trouble to airlines, but they will try to consolidate flights and replace smaller ones with larger ones.” She estimates 5 % To 10% of airline business will be affected.
Baker said that with the end of the holiday travel season next week, the number of travelers in the United States will decrease, so the shortage of personnel can be alleviated. Baker estimates that the off-season for travel will last until mid-February, after which the number of tourists will gradually increase, and this trend will continue until summer.
Charlie Leocha, president of Travelers United, a non-profit organization dedicated to solving consumer travel problems, believes that the problem of flight cancellations and delays after the New Year will be alleviated. He said: “The problems of flight cancellations and airlines’ inability to deliver passengers to their destinations will improve after the holiday. Leocha said: “Currently, most flights are full or have a load factor of at least about 90%. Therefore, our current situation has caused a large number of flight delays. People did not really give up their vacations and stay at home. “
But Baker believes that business travel will not resume until two to four weeks after people return to work. But she said that business travel in the United States may return to 80% of the level before the epidemic by the end of 2022.
According to statistics from Johns Hopkins University & Medicine, currently, the United States has an average of 184,802 new confirmed cases of new crown every day for seven days. But Francis Collins, director of the National Institutes of Health, recently warned that with the spread of the Omi Keron variant, the United States may soon reach one million new cases per day. According to data released by the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (Centers for Disease Control and Prevention), in the short week as of December 18, the proportion of Omi Keron-infected patients in the confirmed cases of new crowns in the United States has increased from 12.6. % Increased to 73.2%. (Fortune Chinese Network)
Translator: Liu Jinlong
Reviewer: Wang Hao
After a holiday weekend that saw thousands of travelers stranded in airports around the country, flight cancellations and delays are bleeding into Monday. But several experts contacted by Fortune say the situation should ease by the end of next week.
On Monday, more than 950 flights in and out of the U.S. had been canceled and more than 2,400 delayed by noon, according to FlightAware.com, which tracks global flight operations.
A full 18% of Alaska Airlines flights were canceled on Monday, and another 12% were delayed, according to FlightAware. JetBlue and Spirit were also hit hard, each canceling 6% of their flights and delaying more than 10%.
To put that in perspective, prior to the pandemic, 2.15% of U.S. flights were canceled in 2019, according to the Bureau of Transportation Statistics.
Wave of cancellations
Not all airlines—and therefore not all travelers—have suffered equally.
United Airlines, for instance, canceled 115 flights on Monday due to staffing issues related to Omicron cases—about 2.9% of its more than 4,000 scheduled flights, a spokesperson for the airline tells Fortune. (FlightAware put the number at 4%.)
“The nationwide spike in Omicron cases has had a direct impact on our flight crews and the people who run our operation,” United said in a statement. Throughout the weekend, United said it contacted passengers early if their flight was set to be canceled to give them time to rebook or make other plans. So far, about 50% of United passengers have arrived at their final destination either early or within four hours of their originally scheduled flight, the airline said.
American Airlines has also canceled about 2% of its flights on Monday so far. “Unfortunately a number of COVID-related sick calls led us to make the difficult decision to precancel some flights scheduled for today,” an American Airlines spokesperson said in a statement to Fortune.
Meanwhile a Southwest Airlines spokesperson told Fortune on Monday that the company has not experienced operational issues this holiday period due to COVID outbreaks among its personnel. “Out of our more than 3,600 scheduled flights, we’ve canceled about 50 because of winter weather conditions” this morning, Southwest said.
Severe winter weather in the Pacific Northwest is having a significant impact on Alaska’s operations, the airline told Fortune. So far, Alaska canceled more than 248 flights from Seattle on Sunday and 120 flights throughout Monday.
Delta said Monday that it expects to cancel 200 of 4,166 scheduled mainline and Delta Connection flights thanks to winter weather impacting its hubs in Minneapolis–St. Paul, Seattle, and Salt Lake City (SLC); the Omicron variant continues to hamper Delta’s operations.
End in sight
As Omicron works its way through the general population, it’s spreading among U.S. flight crews as well, says Helane Becker, an airline analyst at securities firm Cowen. The fact that crews don’t want to get stuck somewhere—quarantine rules currently stipulate that personnel who test positive need to limit contact for 10 days—is also part of the problem.
But that may be shifting. Delta asked for the quarantine time frame to be shortened to five days, which Becker says could alleviate some of the problem. Changing planes could also ease the shortages.
“We think the short term will be beset by strong demand and high cancellations, but the airlines will do their best to combine flights and use larger aircraft in place of smaller aircraft,” Becker told Fortune, estimating between 5% and 10% of airline operations will be affected.
After the holiday travel period ends next week, Becker says the staffing crunch should ease up as fewer Americans are expected to travel. Becker estimates the downturn will last through mid-February before travel picks back up with an upturn that lasts through the summer months.
Charlie Leocha, president of Travelers United, a nonprofit that focuses on consumer issues with travel, agrees flight cancellations and delays will likely ease after New Year’s. “The big issues with the cancellations and the inability of the airlines to move people around are going to drop a little bit after the holidays,” he says. “Right now most flights are going out full or at least around 90%. So the situation we’re in right now with that has led to a lot of the delays,” Leocha says. “The abandonment of vacations and people staying home has not really come to fruition.”
Business travel, however, won’t come back until two to four weeks after return to office, according to Becker. But she says the U.S. will likely be within 80% of pre-pandemic levels by year-end 2022.
Currently, the seven-day average of new daily COVID cases in the U.S. is 184,802, according to Johns Hopkins University & Medicine. But Francis Collins, director of the National Institutes of Health, recently warned the U.S. could soon see 1 million new cases per day thanks to the Omicron variant. In a week, Omicron went from accounting for 12.6% of all reported U.S. cases of COVID-19 to 73.2% as of Dec. 18, according to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention.
