Written by the Today Magazine editorial team
Between October 7th and 14th, it can be called the most “tumultuous” week in the history of China’s semiconductor industry.
“That day… Our company ordered everyone to go to China for business trips first. Colleagues who are already in China must stay in the hotel and are not allowed to move, and wait for further notice from the company!” The engineer who works for a foreign equipment manufacturer remembers the latest semiconductor ban announced by the United States On that day, there was a situation similar to “martial law” throughout the company.
The past two years have coincided with the rush to build semiconductor factories in China. In total, more than 20 fabs are being built all over China at the same time. The hot demand for building a factory has made this engineer and his colleagues, even during the epidemic, still. Frequent business trips to the other side.
Now, everything has changed. His colleagues in China are required not to enter the factories of Chinese semiconductor customers. Everyone must use the hotel as their home first, and they can’t even answer the phone calls from customers. In the future, his American colleagues, as well as those who have green cards. Taiwanese colleagues may no longer be able to work in Chinese semiconductor factories.
This play, like the semiconductor version of the “Dunkirk Retreat”, originates from the latest semiconductor ban issued by the US Department of Commerce on October 7. In this 139-page ban document which covers 9 major principles, one of the most eloquent written principles: “Restrict ‘Americans’ from supporting the development or production of integrated circuits in certain semiconductor manufacturing plants located in China without permission.”
On the first stock market trading day after the ban was announced, the share price of China’s largest wafer leader “SMIC” fell more than 3%; a semiconductor equipment manufacturer on the other hand, whose founder himself is an American “China Micro Semiconductor”, plummeting on the same day 19.4%; North Huachuang, which has the reputation of “China’s talents”, directly locked down until the end.
Panic also hit Taiwan across the sea.
On October 11, the 4th day after the ban was announced and the first opening day after the National Day holiday, the share price of global foundry leader TSMC fell by more than 8%, causing the market value to shrink almost to NT$1 trillion, which is equivalent to the evaporation of a company in one day. MediaTek’s market capitalization.
“It will cause such a big panic because this time the United States (China) banned not a company, but an entire industry, from manufacturing processes, to equipment, and then to people,” said Gai Xinshan, research director of the research institute CounterPoint Semi- conductor.
Tong Zixian, chairman of Pegatron, also made an interpretation at the first time, “I believe that this time is an upgraded version of the US-China trade war, and a version with a more elegant overall plan.”
In this three-and-a-half-year chip war, the United States is currently conducting what is being called the most precise and largest attack ever. In the future, will China’s semiconductor industry be stagnant from now on? The common saying of industry experts is – “Never”, and this will be the only “useful place” in the future, that is, the mature process, to sprint with all strength.
“The rules of the game for semiconductors are different now,” said Xuan Mingming, honorary vice-chairman of UMC. In the past, advanced processes eliminated mature processes. “Not now, advanced processes cannot completely replace mature processes, such as compound semiconductors. , how can this product be put into TSMC’s three nanometer factory?”
The reaction force generated by this is that Taiwan’s mature process companies, such as UMC, NSMC, and the world’s advanced companies, which were originally considered to be in the outermost ring of the storm, may be swept away by this Chinese countermeasure.
“Taiwan’s mature process companies will find it difficult to stay out of the way in the future, because in the future, China can only fully develop mature processes. “Since you do not allow me to be advanced, I will do it.” If you do mature processes, you can still import chips. Replacement. “Gaixinshan said.
Chen Huiming, a partner of Juxin Capital, who was the research director of UBS Semiconductor, predicted more boldly, “After China fully develops the mature process, it will crush the Taiwanese company!”
Tong Zixian reminded that although this type of control was not uncommon in the old Cold War era when the Soviet Union and the United States confronted the United States, Taiwan’s electronics industry emerged in the post-Cold War era. , so the current changes were never tested. by Taiwanese industry.
Faced with the new era of the Cold War, are we in Taiwan really ready?
Source: “Today Weekly” No. 1348
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