Dr.. Amani Al-Taweel
Quoted from Independent Arabia
A year has passed since the Sudanese war, which broke out as a result of complex and complex internal political and military disputes, and under the umbrella of a regional and international conflict no less complex. During this year, the demographic and humanitarian landscape changed, not only in Sudan, but also in the immediate and adjacent Sudanese neighborhood, where people left their homes. Compelled and terrified by the eight millions, a quarter of the population is soon threatened by severe hunger and famine.
On the economic level, Sudan has lost 80 percent of its capabilities. Most of its already weak infrastructure has become rubble, and it may have gone back a century or more, as its components are currently disintegrating, its social fabric is being eroded to its pre-state stages, and ethnic and tribal fanaticism is rising together to culminate in the majority of local interactions.
This tragic scene requires us to monitor in detail what this war produced in all fields, because the overall estimates of international organizations regarding this tragedy do not paint the mosaic of Sudanese destruction, which must be disturbing to those who are still practicing the act of conflict in order to achieve victory for ambitions for power. Or a victory for one ideology over another, at a time when there seems to be a general failure to realize that what is being fought over is at risk of total annihilation and local parties will not benefit from it as much as international parties whose primary concern is plundering Sudanese resources.
In this context, we note that during the stages of internal political conflict, that is, in the pre-war stage, the economic growth rate did not exceed 0.3 percent by the end of 2022, according to Central Bank statistics, which resulted in food, fuel, and fertilizer prices rising by more than 400 percent, and the capacity of… The government agreed to support basic inputs for agricultural production, and farmers also significantly reduced cultivated areas, which contributed to the exacerbation of the crisis of affordability and food production.
prewar
As for Sudan’s exports, they declined by 50 percent before the war, and the extent of the decline has not been observed for more than a year, as gold constituted more than 50 percent of total exports, oil seeds 18 percent, fuel 10 percent, and live animals 7 percent, in addition to About sesame, gum arabic, and frozen meat, all of which are exports that influence the growth rates of the Sudanese economy, as well as some of the immediate neighboring countries, such as Central Africa and South Sudan, which depend for their food commodities by 70 percent on what is produced in Sudan, such as flour, oils, tomato sauce, sugar, etc., and Egypt is considered one of The most important trading partners of Sudan, whether in export or import, and based on the data of the ongoing conflict, trade between Egypt and Sudan was affected as a result of the impact of border crossings and ports.
As a direct result of the military conflict, agricultural investments in Sudan stopped, especially in the Gulf, as more than $20 billion came out of direct foreign investments, including some investments to Saudi Arabia that amounted to about $35 billion, while the UAE’s investments exceeded $7 billion. With regard to Egyptian projects in Sudan amounted to about 229 projects, the majority of which were for the private business sector, with a capital of about $10.8 billion during the period from 2000 to 2013, in addition to state projects in maritime, land and electrical connectivity between the two sides.
As for Chinese investments and projects in Sudan, they exceeded 5 billion dollars, Qatari investments amounted to 4 billion dollars, as well as Kuwaiti investments amounted to about 6 billion dollars.
In general, the Sudanese armed conflict resulted in the Sudanese state losing many of its capabilities, as 60 percent of the available infrastructure was completely or partially destroyed, including about 2,000 government buildings, including the health and educational systems. Bridges and oil refineries were also partially destroyed, in addition to… The closure of 400 industrial facilities in various fields, and the destruction of 70 percent of educational institutions, which led to the withdrawal of 10 million students from the educational process in schools and universities.
In conclusion, and according to the International Monetary Fund’s forecasts, the size of the contraction of the Sudanese economy is unprecedented historically, as it reached 18.3 percent in 2023, and the size of its total losses was estimated at about 100 billion dollars as a result of the war, and the Sudanese currency lost 70 percent of its value, in addition to The state’s inability to manage the salaries of employees in its administrative apparatus.
In this context, reports from the United Nations and other international organizations indicate the scale of the humanitarian catastrophe in Sudan, resulting from the military conflict, from a number of angles. Perhaps what was stated in one of these reports is indicative of the scale of the disaster, as he said, “The population witnessed the death of their loved ones by bullets. Women and girls were subjected to sexual assault, and families saw their property looted and their homes burned to the ground.”
As for statistical indicators, about 8 million Sudanese were displaced from their areas, whether internally or externally, as Chad received about half a million displaced people, and Egypt hosted a similar number through the border crossings, while it is difficult to estimate the size of illegal immigration to Cairo, at a time when the share of each of them was South Sudan and Ethiopia, many thousands.
In terms of internal displacement, the Sudanese fled more than once throughout the Sudanese national territory, especially to the cities of El Fasher, Atbara, Dongola and Wad Madani, in search of safe areas after the expansion of military operations to reach the capitals of the Darfur region and the state of North Kordofan, as well as the state of Gezira in central Sudan.
The limits of tragedy
According to United Nations reports, the situation of food insecurity has almost doubled, affecting more than 20.3 million people, including 700,000 children, who are at risk of acute malnutrition and death. This situation has worsened greatly, as the World Food Program has called on the warring parties in Sudan to Providing immediate guarantees for the safe and unhindered delivery of humanitarian aid to conflict-affected areas, especially across conflict lines, where trapped displaced people suffer from hunger without relief organizations being able to reach them with life-saving aid.
Perhaps the effects of the Sudanese conflict on people’s souls are among the things that are not known about. The sudden war and population displacement under the umbrella of panic created widespread disturbances on the psychological level. Some reports issued by specialized authorities indicate that 60 percent of the Sudanese population needs specialized psychological help as a result of the trauma of war and whatnot. It is accompanied by manifestations of violence and blackmail practiced by the Sudanese against each other, as psychological disorders threaten the lives of hundreds and the future of many children in light of the limited response of international organizations to this threat, given that they focus their activities on addressing the main effects of the conflict and ignore those suffering from psychological trauma and similar cases, and despite the escape Thousands of people have left the fighting scene, some of them need psychological support.
Personal field experiences indicate that the majority of Sudanese refugees in Cairo suffer from difficult humanitarian and social conditions that vary in difficulty according to the financial solvency of the families on the economic and humanitarian levels, as a result of their sudden departure from their country under the shock of war, and the fragmentation and division of families was evident according to the conditions for obtaining entry visas, as well as in The educational process for many children and youth has been halted as a result of the high economic cost of the majority of Sudanese schools in Cairo, and the lack of specific programs by the UNHCR or the Egyptian government to accommodate them in the Egyptian formal education system. Perhaps this is what prompts limited groups of some teenagers and youth to engage in drug-related activities. Or addiction as a result of intolerance to shock, or inability to continue the usual lifestyle and living conditions, as well as phenomena of illness or sudden death.
In general, the current attempt by the international community to save Sudan by supporting the requirements of human security at the Paris Conference seems insufficient and may be at risk of failure, as Paris’s efforts were received on the basis of political and military polarization, and the missions of delivering humanitarian relief will depend on the will of the conflicting parties, hence There is no escape from negotiated political solutions that require continued regional and international efforts.
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