Bualuang Securities Public Company Limited Indicated in an analysis dated (26 December 2023) it is expected that the profit margin of the Thai livestock business is likely to increase in 2024, supported by the price of Thai livestock which is likely to increase. The Thai live pig price is estimated to have increased by 16% from the 2023 low point of 57 baht/kg (16-23 October 2023) up to 66 baht/kg (6-8 December 2023). while the price of live Thai chicken also increased by 8% from 37.25 baht/kg (4-29 October 2023) to 40.25 baht/kg (7-8 December 66)
It is expected that Thai live pork prices will likely recover back to 75-80 baht/kg and Thai live chicken prices will return to 40-44 baht/kg in the first half of 2024.
There is a supporting factor of the upcoming festive season. The effects of the severe El Niño phenomenon, which will lead to hotter than normal weather. (affecting the supply of meat to decrease) and illegal pork smuggling is expected to decrease significantly next year. In addition, the average Thai live pig price for 2024 is estimated at 80 baht / kg, an increase of 7% from the same period last year. And the average price of Thai live chicken in 2024 is 42.5 baht / kg, an increase of 4% from the same period last year. He also estimates that overall raw material costs are likely to fall by around 10% next year.
forEl Niño phenomenon Analysts estimate it at It is “moderately strong” and will lead to a hotter-than-normal summer in Thailand in the first half of 2024. The warmer-than-normal weather is expected to further damage the meat supply until older This will be a factor in putting pressure on the supply of ground meat during April-May. To be even tighter than during normal conditions. and led to an increase in the price of Thai livestock.
In addition, it is expected that the domestic corn price for 2024 will average 10 baht / kg, down 17% from the same period last year. and estimated the average domestic soybean meal price for 2024 to be 20 baht/kg, down 11% from the same period last year from the average price of 22.40 baht/kg in 2023.
From the above issues, he chose the analyst’s department Charoen Pokphand Foods Public Company Limited or CPF It is the first choice for investing in the agriculture and food sector. This is due to the expectation that operating results will return to net profit in 2024, supported by the price of ground meat which is expected to increase in Thailand, China and Vietnam, together with the costs of animal feed which will increase. it will decrease. and profit sharing by associates (by HyLife, a Canadian profit-sharing joint venture The share of loss from CTI, a subsidiary in China, is expected to decrease. and a share of profit from CP All Public Company Limited or CPALL which is expected to continue to grow strongly)
There are also secondary investment options in the agriculture and food sector, such as Betagro Public Company Limited or BTG, Public Company Thai Foods Group Limited or TFG a GFPT Public Company Limited or GFPT
However, the forecast for the recovery of core operating results in 2024 is expected to show that CPF will recover the most from a reversal to its profit estimate of 2 billion baht in 2024, followed by BTG from a reversal to its profit estimate of 1.96 billion baht in 2024 and TFG forecasts 2024 profit at 1.85 billion baht, up 656% from the same period last year, while GFPT forecasts core profit in 2024 at 1.5 billion baht, up 19% from the same period last year. the previous year
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