Tensions between the United States and China are escalating over plans to visit Taiwan, US House Speaker Nancy Pelosi.
Above all, there are voices of concern about a military clash between the US and China.
In response, CNN reported on the 25th (local time) that China’s response to Pelosi’s visit to Taiwan “may be unprecedented, but the possibility of armed conflict is low”, citing experts on the 25th (local time).
President Joe Biden told reporters on the 20th that the US military was seeing Pelosi’s visit to Taiwan as “not a good idea right now”.
Chairman Pelosi then refused to discuss any travel plans for security reasons, saying it was important to show support for Taiwan the next day on the 21st.
“I think what the president was saying was he was afraid that maybe the military would shoot down my plane or something like that,” Pelosi said. I don’t know exactly,” he said.
Former US Secretary of State Mike Pompeo tweeted on the 24th, “Nancy, I will go with you. I’m banned from China, but not from freedom-loving Taiwan. See you there!”
US officials are concerned that Beijing may set up a no-fly zone in Taiwan if Pelosi visits Taiwan, CNN reported.
Although the Chinese government has not publicly stated what “strong measures” it will take, some Chinese experts say the Chinese response may have something to do with force.
Shi Yin-hong, a professor of international relations at Renmin University of China, predicted that “China will respond with the strongest and most unprecedented response since the Taiwan Strait crisis.”
Military clashes broke out across the Taiwan Strait in the 1950s. China has bombarded several Taiwan-controlled islands on two occasions, 10 years after the establishment of the communist state.
The last 3rd Taiwan Strait Crisis occurred between 1995 and 1996. In July 1995, when then-Taiwan President Li Tenghui (李登輝) applied for a visa to the US government to give a lecture at his alma mater Cornell University, China was outraged and launched a missile test in the Taiwan Strait.
The crisis ended only after the US sent two aircraft carrier squadrons into the Taiwan Strait as a sign of strong support for Taiwan.
“If Pelosi continues to visit[Taiwan]the US will make sure that it is prepared to respond militarily to the possibility of a military response from China,” said Professor Shi. “The situation between China and the US will be very tense.” .
This is not the first visit by the US House of Representatives to Taiwan, Pelosi said.
Former House Speaker Newt Gingrich, a Republican, met with President Lee in Taipei, Taiwan, days after visiting Beijing and Shanghai in 1997. At the time, Gingrich told President Li he had warned Chinese leaders that the US would intervene militarily if Taiwan were to be attacked.
Gingrich said the response he had received from China at the time was “quiet”, CNN reported. China’s foreign ministry has publicly criticized Gingrich’s visit to Taiwan, but it was only a diplomatic investigation.
But China warns that things will be different this time around.
25 years later, China is stronger, stronger and more confident. It is also clear that Chinese President Xi Jinping will not tolerate any disregard or challenge to his own interests.
Drew Thompson, visiting senior research fellow at the Lee Kuan Yew School of Public Policy at the National University of Singapore said, “Xi Jinping’s Beijing is a completely different regime. China is in a more resolute position to impose costs and consequences on countries that do not take its interests into account in their policy decisions or actions. It’s different,” he explained.
In particular, under the Xi Jinping regime, nationalism is gaining ground, which has led to a growing number of supporters of “unification” with Taiwan by force.
Hu Shijin, former general editor of China’s state-run Global Times, also argued that if Chairman Pelosi visits Taiwan, China should set a no-fly zone in Taiwan or the People’s Liberation Army should send a military plane to meet him.
This would be a serious violation of Taiwan’s autonomy, and cross-strait relations will inevitably be strained to the most severe level in recent decades. In the meantime, China has carried out armed demonstrations that allowed military aircraft to enter Taiwan’s Air Defense Identification Zone (ADIZ), and Taiwan has also sent fighter jets to warn them, but a Chinese military aircraft has never entered Taiwan’s airspace.
“If Taiwanese forces dare to fire at Chinese fighters, we will respond decisively by shooting down Taiwanese fighters or hitting Taiwanese bases,” Hu said. The moment is coming for the .”
Hu’s belligerent remarks against Taiwan have long had an impact on Chinese nationalist groups, but they are not the official position of the Chinese government, and some of his previous threats against Taiwan have turned out to be false.
But, as senior researcher Thompson pointed out, the fact that Hu’s remarks have not been censored in China, where media control is severe, shows that it has “some support within the Communist Party”, CNN noted.
Pelosi’s visit to Taiwan comes at a time when China is politically sensitive. This coming August 1 is the anniversary of the founding of the People’s Liberation Army of China, and in October, the 20th Party Congress of the Communist Party, where the third term of President Xi will be decided.
Experts point out that this politically sensitive period could trigger a stronger response from China. On the other hand, he says, it may mean that the Communist Party is trying to ensure stability and not let the situation get out of control.
Thompson, citing issues scattered around China’s economic slowdown, deepening real estate crisis, rising unemployment and a zero-coronavirus policy, said, “Honestly, now is not a good time for Xi Jinping to provoke a military conflict just before the 20th Party Congress. It is in Xi Jinping’s interest to manage it rationally and not promote (another) crisis in all the other crises he has to deal with.”
“So I think whatever they do, it will be measured and calculated. They will certainly try to put more pressure on Taiwan, but fall short of anything that can create conditions that are particularly dangerous or beyond their control.”
Professor Shi also agreed that it is unlikely that tensions between the US and China will escalate into an all-out military clash.
“There is no possibility of a military clash between the US and China unless things happen accidentally get out of control in a way that no one could foresee,” he said.
But Shi said it is difficult to predict what China will do right now.
“It is a very difficult situation,” he said. First, (China) must take an unprecedented response decisively. Second, we must prevent a US-China military clash,” he said.
[서울=뉴시스]
