Philippines, Poland: Shared Concerns on China, Russia Deterrence
PolandS Defense Buildup Offers Lessons for the Philippines Amid South China Sea Tensions
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The Philippines is looking too Poland’s assertive stance against Russia and rapid military modernisation for insights as it navigates its own security challenges in the South China Sea. Despite the geographical distance, analysts suggest both nations face similar strategic dilemmas as front lines in rivalries with larger, hegemonic powers. This shared experience may foster strategic common ground, fuelled by both countries’ aspirations as “emerging middle powers”.
Warsaw’s dramatic increase in defence spending and unwavering opposition to Moscow’s actions have resonated with Filipino security analysts.They see parallels between manila’s efforts to modernise its armed forces and deter increasing Chinese pressure in the West Philippine Sea - the Philippines’ term for its exclusive economic zone in the South China Sea.
“There are valuable lessons that Manila can learn from Warsaw despite their geographic distance, as both face similar strategic dilemmas as front lines in rivalries between hegemonic powers,” explains Chester Cabalza, founder and president of the International Development and security Cooperation think tank. Both nations are essentially seeking to bolster their deterrent capabilities while avoiding direct confrontation with a considerably more powerful neighbor.
Poland’s Rapid Military Modernisation: A Case Study in Deterrence
tensions between Russia and Poland have been escalating for years.Following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in 2022, Poland doubled its defence spending from 2.4% to almost 5% of its gross domestic product. This represents an investment of approximately €30 billion (US$35 billion) this year, dedicated to a complete military modernisation program.
This isn’t simply about spending more; it’s about strategic investment. Poland is acquiring advanced weaponry, including tanks, artillery, and air defence systems, largely from the United States and South Korea. This rapid procurement aims to equip the Polish military with the tools necessary to effectively deter potential aggression and defend its territory.
Recent examples demonstrate Poland’s firm stance.In May, poland ordered the closure of Russia’s consulate in Krakow, citing evidence linking moscow to a fire that caused extensive damage to over 1,000 shops in a Warsaw shopping center last year. Russia retaliated by shutting down the Polish consulate in Kaliningrad, further escalating diplomatic tensions.
Implications for the Philippines in the South China Sea
Simultaneously occurring, the Philippines and china remain locked in a long-standing territorial dispute in the South China Sea. China has increasingly employed “gray-zone tactics” – actions that fall short of outright warfare but are designed to intimidate and assert its expansive claims - despite a 2016 ruling by an international tribunal that favoured the Philippines. These tactics include the use of coast guard and maritime militia vessels to harass Filipino fishermen and impede resupply missions to Philippine outposts.The Philippines, like Poland, is seeking to strengthen its defence capabilities to counter these pressures. While a dramatic increase in defence spending to the levels seen in Poland may not be immediately feasible, Manila can draw lessons from Warsaw’s approach to modernisation and deterrence. This includes prioritising investments in key areas such as maritime domain awareness, anti-ship missiles, and enhanced training for its armed forces.
building Alliances and Strategic Partnerships
Beyond military modernisation, both Poland and the Philippines recognise the importance of building strong alliances and strategic partnerships. Poland’s close relationship with the United states and its active participation in NATO are central to its security strategy. Similarly, the Philippines is strengthening its alliances with the US, Japan, and Australia, conducting joint military exercises and seeking increased security cooperation.
The potential for collaboration extends beyond security. Analysts suggest that Poland and the Philippines could benefit from sharing experiences and best practices in areas such as cybersecurity, critical infrastructure protection, and disinformation countermeasures – challenges that both nations face in the context of geopolitical competition.
Ultimately, the situation highlights the growing importance of middle powers asserting their interests and working together to maintain a stable and rules-based international order. The Philippines’ observation of Poland’s approach offers a valuable roadmap for navigating a complex and challenging security landscape.