Poll: PP and Vox Set for Absolute Majority in Spain’s Early Elections
- Spain will hold early general elections on November 29, 2026, after Pedro Sánchez dissolved parliament eight months ahead of schedule, setting up a contest where right-wing parties hold...
- The political crisis leading to the November 29 ballot began following the eviction of Maricarmen, which sparked widespread street protests and before the approval of housing decrees.
- EL PAÍS reported that the Partido Popular leads voter preference at 31.9%, which translates to a projected range of 123 to 140 seats under Alberto Núñez Feijóo.
Spain will hold early general elections on November 29, 2026, after Pedro Sánchez dissolved parliament eight months ahead of schedule, setting up a contest where right-wing parties hold a commanding lead in voter estimation. A flash poll conducted by 40dB for EL PAÍS and the Cadena SER between October 7 and 8, 2026, indicates that the Partido Popular and Vox together exceed 50% of the vote share, guaranteeing an absolute majority in the Congress of Deputies.
The Housing Crisis Triggered Snap Election
The political crisis leading to the November 29 ballot began following the eviction of Maricarmen, which sparked widespread street protests and before the approval of housing decrees. When the housing measures were rejected by the Congress, Sánchez responded by calling the snap election, a timeline confirmed in reporting by EL PAÍS. Polling data shows the housing debate initially provided a lift to the Socialists, though not enough to alter the broader parliamentary balance against the right.
Conservative Parties Secure Absolute Majority Projections
EL PAÍS reported that the Partido Popular leads voter preference at 31.9%, which translates to a projected range of 123 to 140 seats under Alberto Núñez Feijóo. Meanwhile, Vox surges—up five decimals from late September—with a projected range of 63 to 74 seats, according to 40dB data. Diario de Navarra noted that the combined conservative bloc would secure between 200 and 208 deputies, clearing the 176-seat absolute majority threshold required in the 350-seat chamber.
Socialist Gains Countered by Left-Wing Fragmentation
The PSOE climbs seven decimals in voter estimation to reach 28.1%, with a projected range of 105 to 117 seats, according to EL PAÍS. Diario de Navarra observed that this represents the largest Socialist bounce in over a year, driven by the emphasis on housing policy. The broader left-wing coalition is weakened by fragmentation, as the alternative left forces running separately—including Sumar and Podemos—total 7.6% of the vote and face a steep decline in parliamentary representation compared to their joint 2023 outcome.
Vox Retains Voters as General Strike Looms
Voter loyalty figures from 40dB show Vox retaining 93% of its 2023 electorate, while drawing 15% of voters away from the Partido Popular. Cadena SER highlighted that the upcoming campaign will also address the impact of a planned general strike on November 11, just days before formal campaigning begins, leaving the final mobilization levels and the potential impact of a united left-wing Frente Amplio uncertain ahead of the November 29 polling date.