Prediction of less than 40,000 COVID-19 patients in May… Authorities “possibility of re-increasing”

Predicted to decrease to less than 500 after 2 weeks of critical illness
There is a possibility that the reduction will be reduced due to the complete lifting of the distance.
‘BA.2.12.1’, the sense of inflow with the strongest radio wave power
Report of acute hepatitis in children of unknown cause

If the decline in the prevalence of COVID-19 continues, it is predicted that the number of daily confirmed cases will drop to less than 40,000 by the end of next month. It is predicted that the number of critically ill patients in hospital will decrease to less than 500 after two weeks and drop to around 300 after four weeks.

The Central Quarantine Countermeasures Headquarters announced on the 26th that 5 out of 6 organizations participating in the prediction of the outbreak of COVID-19 predicted the decrease in the epidemic as follows. However, this analysis has limitations in that it does not reflect the impact of the complete lifting of social distancing.

Sang-won Bang, head of the Epidemiological Investigation and Analysis Division, said, “The lifting of distancing cannot have a positive effect on the number of patients. Director Lee added, “This decline will continue for a while, but after one or two months, the decline may stop and a plateau may come.” The number of patients who died of COVID-19 the day before was 82, which fell below 100 for the first time in 55 days since March 2 (96).

The quarantine authorities believe that there is a possibility that the number of patients will increase again in the second half of the year due to various variables such as the effect of vaccination, a decrease in natural immunity, and the appearance of new mutations. In particular, there are concerns that if ‘BA.2.12.1’, which is called ‘stealth omicron’, which has about 20% more radio wave power than BA.2, is introduced into Korea, the resurgence time may be accelerated. This mutation was first detected in the United States in December of last year as a sub-physical mutation of Omicron, and its share is increasing mainly in New York. 90% of confirmed cases in central New York and surrounding areas are confirmed with this mutation.

Experts point out that the number of cases should be reduced as much as possible before a resurgence. However, there are currently no quarantine measures to artificially significantly reduce the number of patients other than natural reduction. Professor Eom Joong-shik of the Department of Infectious Diseases at Gachon University Gil Hospital warned, “As we saw with the Omicron epidemic, if the epidemic starts with a large number of patients, doubling (doubled) can occur and spread rapidly.” In fact, it took less than two months for the number of patients from 10,000 on February 1 to increase to 620,000 on March 17.

Bang Dae-Bon also expressed a negative opinion about the removal of the outdoor mask. Director Lee said, “The current trend is on the decline, but the amount of movement is increasing and the removal of outdoor masks can lead to weariness of indoor masks, so we are carefully reviewing them.”

The Korean Medical Association’s Corona 19 Countermeasures Committee issued a recommendation to the public on the same day and appealed for personal quarantine rules, saying, “COVID-19 is not over yet.” In addition, he emphasized that “there are still tens of thousands of confirmed cases of COVID-19 in Korea, and it is still a threatening virus for high-risk groups.”

Meanwhile, the quarantine authorities announced that overseas cases of acute hepatitis of unknown cause in children under the age of 16 have been reported and the monitoring system has been strengthened. A total of 169 cases of acute hepatitis were reported in 12 countries, including the United Kingdom and some European countries, and one death was reported. In some cases, adenovirus (at least 74) and COVID-19 virus (20) were also confirmed.

Reporter Lee Hyun-jung