On November 29, President Yoon Seok-yeol addressed the public at the Presidential Office Building in Yongsan, Seoul, discussing the failure to hold the Busan Expo. The public sentiment in PK (Busan, Gyeongnam, Ulsan) differs from that in TK (Daegu, Gyeongbuk). The People’s Power Party is concerned about the synchronization of public sentiment with the metropolitan area in the PK region, unlike TK. In the past, PK had emotional unity under conservative governments, but now it’s a challenge to achieve that unity under President Yoon. The bid for the Busan Expo was a critical opportunity to influence public sentiment in PK, particularly in Busan. However, the disappointing outcome seems to have impacted the approval ratings for President Yoon and the ruling party. Public sentiment in PK is sensitive to political events, as demonstrated by the Kukje Newspaper/KSOI survey results. While Busan residents remained relatively calm, a nationwide Realmeter survey showed a significant increase in President Yoon’s approval rating following an Expo event in Paris, hinting at its importance to the local public. Despite the disappointment, there are views suggesting that Busan still gained valuable assets through the Expo bid process. However, concerns about the government’s competence and its impact on the upcoming general election have surfaced in the Democratic Party. The results of the Expo bid are anticipated to play a significant role in the upcoming general election in PK, as they could potentially trigger change within the ruling party.
On November 29, President Yoon Seok-yeol was speaking to the public about the failure to hold the Busan Expo at the Presidential Office Building in Yongsan, Seoul. photo news
The public sentiment of PK (Busan, Gyeongnam, Ulsan) flows differently from the public sentiment of TK (Daegu, Gyeongbuk). Looking at the approval rating for President Yoon Seok-yeol, the People’s Power Party’s concern is that the PK region, unlike TK, has shown a phenomenon of synchronization with the metropolitan area. When the president’s approval rating fell in the metropolitan area, PK also inevitably fell. In addition, there were many evaluations that emotional unity within the region was inferior compared to the previous conservative government. During the administrations of Lee Myung-bak and Park Geun-hye, the conservative public in this region thought of him as ‘our president,’ but people who know the situation in Busan say it is not easy to attach’ the word ‘we’ to President Yoon again.
The ‘Busan World Expo 2030 (hereafter referred to as Busan Expo)’ was a valuable means of subverting public sentiment in PK, especially Busan. Indeed, from Busan’s point of view, the war began as an ‘underdog’ bid. If, according to the scenario presented, they had blocked Saudi Arabia’s two-thirds vote in the first round, Busan came second, and achieved a last-minute reversal by absorbing the votes of Italy, which was eliminated in the runoff, it would not have been such positive news for the ruling party.
The Expo bid has become a worst case scenario
In fact, public sentiment in this region responds sensitively to policy issues. According to a survey of 1,000 Busan citizens by Kukje Newspaper and the Korea Institute of Social Opinion (KSOI) released on September 26, when asked about the impact that holding the Expo would have on the general election, 41.5% said it would not. n have a significant effect, 34.7% % who responded said ‘the party in control will have an advantage.’ It can be seen as a relatively calm atmosphere.
On the other hand, the opposite trend appears in the results of a survey conducted by Realmeter on 2,505 people aged 18 or over across the country between November 20 and 24 at the request of Energy Economy News. President Yoon’s approval rating was found to be 38.1%, up 2.5 percentage points from the previous survey, and this was due to him rising a whopping 7.2 percentage points in PK. Because the survey was conducted immediately after President Yoon held an expo sales event in Paris, France, an analysis called the ‘Expo effect’ was conducted. Even if they pretend not to, it is proof that the local public thinks the Expo is important. It was expected that if the Expo was held under these conditions, President Yoon’s approval rating and the ruling party’s approval rating within PK would increase, and the competitiveness of general election reserves could People Power Party also increased.
However, the bid to attract the Expo, which the ruling party put all its efforts into, ended with a very disappointing result. Saudi Arabia won overwhelmingly with 119 votes, so there wasn’t even a runoff election. The problem is how the public opinion of PK accepts the number of votes that Busan got, which is 29.
Before announcing the host city of the Expo, a political official in Busan presented three scenarios. “A big change in holding the Expo is that the number of votes is made public. If it miraculously turns around and attracts attention, it will be a big hit. Sweeping all seats (18 seats) in Busan in next year’s general election is the People’s Power Party’s goal, and it may be achieved. If we come second after Saudi Arabia with a reasonable number of votes, it’s not that bad because we did well. Most people know that it is really difficult to pull off a major international event for the first time. All that is required is a performance that can be evaluated as showing that the ruling party has demonstrated its capabilities. The worst thing is if you lose by a large margin. “We raised public expectations by making it seem like we were all following along, but if we receive ridiculous grades, we could face a backlash.”
In terms of performance, you may have to worry about backlash. An official from the Busan City Democratic Party said, “The atmosphere in Busan is absurd right now regarding the result of getting 29 votes. However, looking at the president speaking to the nation about this failure, it seems he thinks he could win. “If the assurance of hosting the Expo was genuine and not a media drama, then even predicting the market situation would have failed, which shows how amateurish the way this government works ,” he said. In other words, the power of the ruling party is revealed through the number of votes.
On the other hand, there is an opinion within the party that controls the PK that the result of the Expo request is not so great. This means it is a tough game, and the efforts of the government and the business community deserve praise. In addition, Busan is believed to have acquired quite a lot of assets in the process of attracting major infrastructure projects in the region, such as the opening of the Gadeok New Airport in early 2029, the expansion of the North Port redevelopment zone, and the construction of the transport network in the eastern region Busan.
PK is a region with a strong political thirst. Underneath the feeling of Busan, which is the second largest city but is now becoming a city in decline, is the disappointment that politicians have not been able to ease Busan’s austerity. However, the fact that the high expectations of the expo have been brought to a point where there is a considerable sense of deprivation means that the reaction could be met with great disappointment.
For this reason, there were some voices of concern within the Busan region even before the results of the bidding war were announced. There was talk in the President’s office that “Busan has caught up with Saudi Arabia,” and there were concerns that expectations could be raised too high, signaling that “a reversal is possible.” Attention was drawn to the fact that if there is a major defeat, it is necessary to create an exit strategy in advance, as it cannot be free of responsibility. A landslide defeat would be fortunate, but an outright defeat would inevitably place a significant burden on the structure of the local general election.
“We need a clear answer on local issues”
The Democratic Party appears to be investigating the ‘incompetence theory of the ruling party’. A former official said, “We lost by a large margin. “It will be effective in the general election to highlight the incompetence of the conservatives as they have taken the opportunity of Busan away,” he said. Until now, the local Democratic Party has refrained from interpreting the hosting of the Expo politically by linking it to the general election, but now I think the situation has changed. As PK already has a certain percentage of support from the opposition and the number of independents has been increasing recently, I think it is necessary to raise the issue of responsibility in order to unite them.
In this general election, PK is seen as the epicenter of change within the ruling party. In a recent party audit conducted by the People Power Party, an important criterion was the gap between the party’s approval rating and the approval rating of lawmakers, but there are rumors that there are only three or four People Power Party lawmakers in the Busan region. recorded individual approval ratings higher than the party approval rating. In addition, I hear that first-time legislators have generally performed poorly.
However, the change is sure to be tied to President Yoon’s approval rating. If the approval rating is high, the downward movements of the people from the Office of the President or prosecutors for the general election can be strengthened and expanded, but if the approval rating of the President falls, the story is different. For this reason, there are some observations that failure to maintain could create a breathing hole for current law makers. An official from the People Power Party said, “Even in the last general election, a large number of Busan’s lawmakers were replaced, and there was much talk that the power of the man in the middle was declining because of this. “Unlike TK, Busan is a region where there is resistance to strategic nominations, but in the end, local preference towards the president is important,” he said.
Since the Expo failed, follow-up measures have become important to the ruling party. The reason the Busan public was enthusiastic about the Expo was not only because of the Expo itself, but also because of the expectations that it would provide a long-awaited growth engine and that regional issues could be solved on a large scale. What Busan wants is the continuation of the economic road map. An official from the People Power Party said, “The driving force of the Expo is gone, but we need assurance that projects will go ahead as planned. “Only then will the conservative advantage in PK be sustained,” he said.
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