Stock news 16:25 hours 2024-01-29
PTT Exploration and Production Public Company Limited (PTTEP) announced its 4Q23 budget tomorrow, targeting profit in the range of 162-17.9 billion baht, weakening QoQ, weighed down by special items. Asset impairment in the Mozambique LNG project due to postponement of COD from 2070 to 2021, but expected to grow YoY from 4Q22 after recognition of additional proceeds from the sale of the Cash & Maple exploration project in 4Q23 and has a positive impact on the operation. results for the whole year 2023.
KGI Securities (Thailand) expects PTTEP to report 4Q23 net profit of 17.4 billion baht (+11% YoY, -4% QoQ) The YoY increase and QoQ decrease is mainly due to the projected impairment loss of around $125 million in 4Q23 was due to the postponement of the COD Mozambique project by one year to 1H 2023, although the company recorded a surprise gain of around $60 million. from the sale of the Cash & Maple petroleum exploration project, but excluding special items Core business profit is expected to decline YoY and QoQ due to higher unit costs and lower crude oil prices.
However, its 2023 profit forecast rose 3% to a record 75.8 billion baht. Due to additional profit of about 60 million USD. from the sale of the Cash & Maple exploration project in 4Q23 and adjusted the 2024 profit forecast another 1% to 64 billion baht and 55.1 billion baht in 2025 from the latest investment in the wind project.
Maintain PTTEP’s Neutral rating with an unchanged 2024 target price at 165.00 baht based on the DCF method with a WACC of 8.8% and terminal growth of 1.0% There is also a slightly positive view from the Thai government in renegotiating the Claims Area issue which n Overlap. (OCA) between Thailand and Cambodia But it is still at the beginning. For E&P businesses, it usually takes 7-10 years from the exploration stage to production.
Beyond Securities expects PTTEP to have a 4Q23 net profit of 17.9 billion baht, down 1.3% QoQ but up 14.5% YoY from 1. Higher sales volume to 477,000 barrels of oil equivalent per day (kboed) increased 2% QoQ from 4.67 kboed in 3Q23, driven by increased sales of petroleum production projects in exploration block G2/61 following a maintenance shutdown in 3Q23 and B8 following an unplanned shutdown from March to 23 October.
2. Strong crude oil price at $82/barrel. and gas price at $6/MMBTU
3. Unit costs fell to $28-29/barrel from $29.12/barrel in 3Q23, mainly due to lower OPEX due to reduced maintenance shutdowns.
4. Total operating loss of USD 65 million. of multiple non-recurring items
UOB Securities expects net profit for the 4th quarter of 2023 to be 16.5 billion baht, down 9% QoQ as a result of recognizing losses from special items increasing from the 3rd quarter of 2023 as a result of 1. Disruption of the LNG project in Mozambique is 4.5 billion baht 2. The write-off of the Oliver project in Australia is at 1.8 billion baht 3. The proceeds from the sale of an investment in the Cash-Maple project in Australia is 2.3 billion baht. Hedging increase of 358 million baht and 5. Exchange rate gain of 173 million baht.
But normal profits are strong. If it does not include losses from special items, the company is expected to have a normal profit of 4/66 of 19.8 billion baht, an increase of 4% QoQ as a result of the average product selling price remaining stable at $ 48.7 per barrel. From the gas sales price increase of 2% from the adjustment of gas sales prices from domestic production sources during October 2023, sufficient to compensate for the 4% decrease in crude oil prices, total sales were 477,000 barrels per day , an increase of 2. % QoQ from the Bongkot project, the Malaysia-Thailand Joint Development Area (MT JDA) project, and projects in Algeria. In addition, QoQ production costs remained stable at $28.8 per barrel.
2023 net profit forecast adjusted by 3% to reflect the results of special items that occurred. This makes net profit expected at 74.9 billion baht, an increase of 6% YoY.
As for Asia Plus Securities, the research department forecasts net profit for the 4th quarter of 2023 to be equal to 17.5 billion baht, down 3% QoQ, weighed down by special items that were net in this period as total expenses increased to about 3% billion. baht from the previous period which was a net special expense of 2 billion baht arising from 1. Disruption of the Mozambique LNG project (PTTEP holds 8%) of approximately 4.5 billion baht because the project will have delayed commercial production for another year from the latest set in 70 to 71 (this time the 3rd time asset impairment, with the 1st time occurring in 2021 at 163 million USD and the second time occurring in 2022 at 190 million USD, by resulting in the Mozambique LNG project having a current remaining book value of approximately 2.5-2.6 billion USD. From the value at the time of purchase of approximately 2.0 billion USD. And another approximately 600-700 million USD has been invested along the way.The total net worth before deducting impairment will be around 2.6-2.7 billion USD or around 78-83 billion baht).
2. The write-off value of the Oliver project in Australia is approximately 1.8 billion baht after PTTEP sells the Cash & Maple project, which means that the development of the Oliver project is expected to go further. which is currently still in the audit phase (with the book value after write-offs remaining around 30 million USD)
However, it benefited from additional income that helped offset some of the additional costs that occurred in the 4th quarter of 2023 from recording a profit from the sale of the Cash & Maple project of approximately 2.3 billion baht, recording a profit from Fx of approximately 2.3 billion . billion baht 452 million baht from the previous period where a loss from Fx of 197 million baht was recorded, a profit from the ringgit appreciation of about 175 million baht was recorded, and a profit from Oil Price Warping of 356 million baht was recorded from the previous period when a loss was recorded of Oil Price Hedging 665 million baht
But if special items are cut Considering only profit from normal operations for the 4th quarter of 2023, it is expected to increase slightly by 2.1% QoQ to 20.5 billion baht, receiving positive results from both sales volume which is expected to increase to 4.77 of 4.67.100,000 barrels per day, mainly because the G2/61 project has returned to normal production. After the 3rd quarter of 2023, there was a 32 day maintenance shutdown and Contract 4 and JDA projects had an increase in condensate load. Although the SABA-K and SABA-H projects have seen a reduction in crude oil loading, including the PDO Block 6 and Oman Block 61 projects, they have returned to normal oil loading. Not carried forward from 2nd quarter 2023 as happened in 3rd quarter 2023.
The production capacity of the G1/61 project remains at 400 million cubic feet per day. Similar to the previous period It will gradually increase production capacity to reach the target of 800 million cubic feet per day on April 1, 2024, including receiving positive results from the average product sales price. (Oil + Gas) is expected to increase slightly to 49.2 from 48.6 USD per barrel (under the sales ratio of gas and oil at 70% and 30% respectively) as a result of the sales prices. the barrel and the selling price of gas increased slightly to 5.85 from 5.75 USD per million BTU.
But these positive effects were partially offset by higher total costs. The reason for this is that a special one-time adjustment cost is usually incurred when adjusting the year-end budget. But when considering the cost per unit, it was found to be similar to the previous period. 29.1 USD per barrel As production and sales volumes in the 4th quarter of 2023 increase, overall normal profit and net profit in 2023 are expected to be 7.6 and 80 billion baht, a decrease of 9.3% yoy and an increase of 7.2% yoy, respectively that, and they are in The framework that the research department has evaluated
Innovation Exchange expects PTTEP’s 4Q23 profit to fall 104% QOQ (even up 3.8% YoY) to 16.2 billion baht, with losses from special items. (Loss due to the disruption of the Mozambique LNG project due to the postponement of the start of operations from 2070 to 2071 will be partially compensated. with profits from oil price hedging and asset sales Normalized operating profit is expected to increase 5% QoQ on higher sales volumes and operating costs lower.Due to reduced maintenance costs
The sales volume is expected to increase by 2% QoQ to peak in 2023 at 477,000 barrels per day. This will result in a full year sales volume of 462 hundred thousand barrels per day. in line with the company’s latest goals This was supported by an increase in gas sales at the G2/61 (Bongkot) project after it was closed for maintenance. Increased condensate sales from the Contract-4 and JDA projects also helped increase overall sales volume. But this was offset by lower sales numbers in projects in Malaysia and the Middle East.
EBITDA margin will remain above 75% We estimate an average selling price of US$48.54/barrel (-0.2% QoQ) with unit costs of US$29/barrel (-0.8% QoQ), which will allow PTTEP to maintain EBITDA . >75% in 4Q 23. Fewer maintenance shutdowns will reduce unit costs through lower operating costs.
By InfoQuest News Agency (29 Jan. ’24)
Tags: PTTEP , PTT Petroleum Exploration and Production
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