Putin’s Threats: Next Target After Ukraine?
The Most Dangerous Demand: Russia’s Assertion of Rights Over Russian Speakers Abroad
While much of the international focus regarding Putin’s demands in the Ukraine conflict has centered on territorial integrity and the rules-based international order, the most dangerous aspect lies in Russia’s insistence on guaranteeing the religious and cultural rights of Russian speakers in Ukraine. This demand establishes a precedent for Russian intervention in the internal affairs of not just ukraine, but numerous former Soviet states.
Russia is effectively positioning itself as a perpetual party to the political dynamics within Ukraine. should Moscow perceive a threat to the rights of Russian speakers – as Putin claimed in 2014 and 2022, justifying his invasions – it may repeat its actions, irrespective of any security guarantees provided to Kyiv. This places the obligation on Ukraine to avoid “provoking” Russia, effectively curtailing its sovereignty.
this logic extends far beyond Ukraine. Russia is asserting its role as a natural protector and guarantor of the rights of Russian speakers throughout the former soviet Union, justifying the use of diplomatic, economic, and military means to ensure their protection. This establishes Russia as a stakeholder in the internal politics of countries from Latvia to Kazakhstan,and Moldova to Estonia.
This outcome, the author argues, will be the most lasting result of the Ukraine War and Russia’s greatest victory – exceeding any territorial gains.
Russia’s Own Monroe Doctrine
This assertion of protection aligns with a concept Putin has long promoted: the “Near Abroad” (Blizhnee Zarubezhe). this term refers to the independent republics that emerged from the dissolution of the Soviet Union, and Russia claims a right to exert significant influence within this region.
The concept is comparable to the Monroe Doctrine, which defined the United States’ sphere of influence in the Americas. Moscow’s 2023 “Concept of the Foreign Policy of the Russian Federation” explicitly outlines a goal of establishing an “integrated economic and political space in Eurasia,” while ”preventing and countering unfriendly actions” that hinder cooperation with Russia.
This idea was first openly revised in 2008 during Russia’s war with Georgia,when Moscow challenged the post-Soviet borders. Then-Vice President Dmitry Medvedev argued for Russia’s “privileged interests” in its neighborhood, citing ”traditionally kind cordial relations” with these countries.
The Ukraine War and any resulting peace agreement could solidify this “Near Abroad” concept, granting it international legitimacy.
Russian-Speakers in Former Soviet States
Putin justified the war in Ukraine, in part, by claiming discrimination against Russian speakers.Prior to the war,approximately 30% of Ukraine’s population spoke Russian.
Ukraine had taken steps perceived as discriminatory, including a 2019 law mandating the use of Ukrainian in the public sector, and a 2018 ban on Russian cultural products in the Lviv Oblast. These policies were criticized by civil rights groups, Human Rights Watch, and the Venice Commission.
However, Ukraine is not alone in having a significant Russian-speaking minority. belarus has a population that is 70-80% Russian-speaking, and the Baltic states also have substantial Russian-speaking communities. This raises the specter of potential Russian intervention in these countries should Moscow perceive a threat to the rights of their Russian-speaking populations.