The RMB exchange rate against the US dollar continued to be strong on Thursday (28th), rising above the RMB 7.1 mark on Friday.
According to “Wall Street Insights”, the offshore RMB exchange rate against the US dollar rose to 7.0886 yuan on Friday, setting a new daily high since June this year and rising more than 309 points. Including Thursday’s 318-point gain, the offshore RMB increased by 627 points in two days.
The onshore RMB rose about 230 points against the US dollar to trade at RMB 7.089.
As expectations of interest rate cuts by the US Federal Reserve (Fed) continue to rise, the exchange rate of the RMB against the US dollar has rebounded sharply since November, with onshore and offshore RMB rising and breaks several important levels in a row.
Looking to the future, what will be the trend of the RMB exchange rate? Many experts believe that the weakening of the US dollar has eased external pressure on the RMB, and together with the increased demand for foreign exchange settlement at the end of the year, the RMB is expected to rise further in the short term.
Ying Xiwen, head of CMBC International’s Research Department, said that as expectations of the Fed’s interest rate cut increase and the domestic economy recovers, the domestic and international environment of the RMB has greatly improved, and there is a higher chance that the RMB exchange will be rate against the US dollar returns within “7” in 2024. big.
Ying Xiwen also said that there will be a new wave of exchange rate quotas after January 1, 2024. In addition, as the Spring Festival approaches, companies may hold a new round of central exchanges for foreign exchange settlement or salary payment, and the RMB fluctuate by then.
A research report by Ping An Securities noted that, looking ahead to 2024, the pressure on RMB depreciation is expected to ease, freeing up more room for monetary policy. Given that the center of the US dollar index has moved down, the “expected gap” in the Chinese economy may narrow, and the outlook for external demand and exports is improving, the RMB exchange rate against the US dollar is expected to getting better gradually returned to 6.8 yuan to 7.0 yuan.
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