Robeco Expected Returns: Navigating the Great Rewiring of the Global Economy
- Financial services firm Robeco published its Expected Returns report for the 2027–2031 period, outlining a major economic shift from efficiency-driven models to resilience-focused strategies.
- According to the Robeco report, the global economy is undergoing a structural transformation along three interconnected dimensions that will impact future asset returns.
- We believe that AI will predominantly augment labor instead of displacing it.
Financial services firm Robeco published its Expected Returns report for the 2027–2031 period, outlining a major economic shift from efficiency-driven models to resilience-focused strategies. The global economy is transitioning to a “just-in-case” framework driven by the energy transition, artificial intelligence infrastructure, and geopolitical fragmentation.
Three Dimensions of the Great Rewiring
According to the Robeco report, the global economy is undergoing a structural transformation along three interconnected dimensions that will impact future asset returns. Rather than undergoing outright deglobalization, international trade is reorganizing as firms diversify supply chains and governments prioritize security alongside pure economic efficiency. The second dimension involves the role of capital, marking an inflection point away from consumption-led economies toward investment-led models. Massive infrastructure spending dedicated to artificial intelligence and renewable energy is strengthening the physical economy, causing traditional asset-light economic models to lose ground over the next five years. Production represents the third dimension of the shift. Companies are redesigning their internal workflows around artificial intelligence to drive a productivity renaissance.
We believe that AI will predominantly augment labor instead of displacing it.
Macroeconomic Resilience and Market Drivers
Geopolitical shifts, such as the closure of the Strait of Hormuz—a vital transit route for one-sixth of global energy supplies—highlight the vulnerability of traditional supply chains. In response, the global economy is establishing alternative routes and increasing investments in renewable energy to cut reliance on fossil fuels. Peter van der Welle, a multi-asset solutions strategist at Robeco, noted that the firm remains committed to the technological progress of the ongoing renaissance while adjusting its outlook on economic policy uncertainty.
What has changed is our understanding of the cyclical implications of ongoing capital expenditure to facilitate the AI revolution, as well as the resilience of the global economy in light of severe supply shocks in the oil market, not to mention the consequences of the highest US tariffs since the 1930s.
Five-Year Scenarios for Asset Performance
The Expected Returns report outlines three distinct economic scenarios for the 2027–2031 window.