Romania Sovereign Rating: Fitch Maintains “BBB Minus” – Negative Outlook

Fitch has maintained the sovereign rating of Romania at “BBB minus”, with a negative perspective, a statement from the Financial Assessment Agency is shown.

“The decision to reconfirm the sovereign rating is supported, in the opinion of the agency, by the membership of the European Union and by the capital entries from the European Union that support the real convergence of the income and the external financing, as well as the positive evolution of the GDP per capita and of the governance indicators, which are located at the same levels in the same category”, ” The Ministry of Finance showed, in a press release sent on Friday night.

According to the document, the negative perspective reflects, in the agency’s opinion, the significant deterioration of Romania’s public finances, highlighted by a large fiscal deficit and a rapid increase of the public debt report as a percentage of GDP.

The strengths that have led to the maintenance of the rating and the perspective are balanced in relation to the large and persistent deficits of the state budget and the current account, the rapid increase of the public debt, the political polarization and a quite high position of the external debt, the ministry said.

“The Fitch decision, in a sensitive fiscal and budgetary context, reconfirms the confidence in the measures and plans of the Government of Romania-both in compliance with the fiscal consolidation commitments to the external partners, as well as to ensure the sustainability of public finances,” said the Minister of Finance, Alexandru Nazare.

According to the statement, Fitch forecasts highlight an estimated economic growth at 0.7% in 2025 (similar to 2024) and a growth rate of about 1.2% in 2026 and 2027, supported by EU funds and the recovery of the euro area economy.

Regarding the evolution of public debt, Fitch forecasts that it will reach 55% of GDP at the end of 2025, at 63.4% of GDP in 2027 and that it is possible to reach 70% until 2029.

Between the factors that could improve the rating or perspective, Fitch highlights:

– constant fiscal consolidation and sustained reduction of the budget deficit;

– decrease of public debt as a percentage of GDP;

– Improving the position of the current account by reducing the external debt and reducing the risks of external financing.

On the other hand, the factors that could worsen the rating of Romania are the lack of sufficient fiscal consolidation in the medium term, a significant increase in the public debt/GDP report and the credibility of public policies, macroeconomic stability and external liquidity due to excessive twin deficits.

“Maintaining the Investment Grade qualification is crucial for Romania, under the conditions of high fiscal and budgetary pressures. This rating directly influences the financing costs on domestic and international markets, as well as the interest of investors for the purchase of Romanian state securities,” explains the Ministry of Finance.