Russia and North Korea Forge Unlikely Alliance: Will This Defense Deal Spark Global Chaos

The French press quoted experts as saying that the defense deal between Russia and North Korea, which could include the deployment of up to 10,000 North Korean troops in Ukraine, is unlikely to lead to a global military buildup. However, the implementation of this “strategic partnership” may threaten regional stability in the Asia-Pacific region, where increasing conflicts with the West are emerging.

Pascal Diaz-Bergon, an expert on two Koreas, said he “doesn’t see how this could escalate into a world war,” noting that North Korea is just “a small dictatorship that does not represent a real threat to world peace,” especially since its The military budget is much smaller than that of South Korea.

For her part, Marie Dumoulin of the European Center for Foreign Relations noted that sending North Korean troops with little experience on foreign battlefields “won’t make much difference operationally.” But Moscow could take advantage of the “cohesion clause” to support North Korea if tensions rise with South Korea, a historic U.S. ally.

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky announced – yesterday, Friday – that North Korean forces could engage in hostilities against his forces starting on Sunday, raising fears of a new escalation in hostilities. Despite this, North Korea has clarified that the deployment of its forces in Russia will be “in accordance” with international law, but it has neither confirmed nor denied the presence of its forces on Russian territory, sparking criticism from the US and the South. Korea.

On Thursday, Russia’s House of Representatives voted unanimously to approve a comprehensive strategic defense partnership agreement between Russia and North Korea that stipulates “mutual assistance” in the event of aggression.

Role of China and Iran

While the number of North Korean forces and their missions in Ukraine remain unclear, many experts suspect that major military powers such as China and Iran may engage in direct combat on the Ukrainian front.

“There is no alliance game between the superpowers as there was before the First World War,” said Diez-Bergen. He noted that China is primarily focused on Taiwan and supports the war in Ukraine from a strategic perspective, but does not consider it a priority. As for Iran, its priorities focus on the Middle East.

Darcy Dradot, a researcher at the Carnegie Center, believes that the conflict that North Korean forces might engage in in Ukraine could give them combat experience and testing for advanced weapons systems, which could “lead to a radical shift in the security balance on the Korean Peninsula.”

Isabel Falcon, deputy director of the Strategic Research Foundation and an expert on Russian security policy (FRS), said the partnership between Moscow and Pyongyang is a way to show on the international stage that they are not isolated.

According to Falcon, there is a possibility that the trio (Russia, China and Iran) will try to increase military-technical cooperation between them, which is a worrying prospect for Western countries.

A new cold war?

Andrew Yu, a researcher at the Brookings Institution, believes that Russia is ready to engage in “bloc politics” and revive the idea of a “new Cold War” by forming a front of non-aligned or anti-Western countries.

China, which is considered a major supporter of the North Korean regime, still takes a relatively neutral position on the defense partnership between Russia and North Korea. Falcon explained that Beijing, despite its neutrality, “welcomes these developments” with the idea of establishing a “military security center” centered on it in Asia.

However, Yu believes Beijing may be concerned that North Korea-Russia relations will weaken its influence in Pyongyang and give the US an additional reason to strengthen military alliances in the region, particularly between NATO, Japan and South Korea.

These developments raise questions about whether a potential military buildup in Asia could affect regional stability and motivate the West to strengthen its forces and alliances in the region.