Russia Budget Deficit 2024: Fivefold Increase
- Russia's budget took a hit in May 2025, with the deficit increasing by 168 billion rubles ($2.18 billion), according to the Finance Ministry.
- The current deficit is nearly five times higher than the same period in 2024 and approaches the initially projected deficit for the entire year, which was 3.8 trillion...
- Economist Yegor Susin noted that May's budget results were worse than anticipated.
Russia’s budget deficit is in crisis, with May’s shortfall reaching 168 billion rubles, driving the year-to-date deficit nearly fivefold higher than 2024.This escalating trend, driven by plummeting oil and gas revenues—a 2.5-year low—and persistent high spending,raises serious concerns. Experts now forecast the primarykeyword deficit could balloon to 6 to 7 trillion rubles. While non-oil revenues offer some respite, the situation demands immediate attention. The data reveals a complex interplay of factors, including economic slowdown and geopolitical challenges, straining the secondarykeyword budget. News Directory 3 examines the critical details behind these figures,from the sharp decline in energy income to the government’s proposed solutions.Discover what measures Russia will take to navigate this fiscal storm and stabilize its economy.
Russia’s Budget Deficit Soars Amid Falling Oil Revenues
Updated June 10, 2025
Russia’s budget took a hit in May 2025, with the deficit increasing by 168 billion rubles ($2.18 billion), according to the Finance Ministry. This brings the total deficit for the first five months of the year to 3.4 trillion rubles ($44.2 billion), or 1.5% of GDP.
The current deficit is nearly five times higher than the same period in 2024 and approaches the initially projected deficit for the entire year, which was 3.8 trillion rubles ($49.4 billion), or 1.7% of GDP. The Finance ministry initially aimed for a smaller deficit of 1.2 trillion rubles ($15.6 billion),or 0.5% of GDP.
Economist Yegor Susin noted that May’s budget results were worse than anticipated. Revenue growth has slowed, and spending, while reduced from early-year advance payments, has not decreased as much as was to be expected.
Analysts at MMI are concerned that the budget situation is becoming increasingly critical, forecasting a deficit of 6 to 7 trillion rubles ($78-91 billion). The slump in oil and gas revenues is a primary factor, dropping to 513 billion rubles ($6.67 billion) in May, the lowest in two and a half years. Over the first five months of 2025,these revenues totaled 4.24 trillion rubles ($55.1 billion), a 14.4% decrease from the previous year.
Non-oil and gas revenues are providing some offset, exceeding the revised target with nearly 2 trillion rubles ($26 billion) in May. Over five months, they totaled 10.5 trillion rubles ($136.5 billion), a 12.3% increase from January-May 2024, driven by higher corporate profit taxes and increased turnover taxes.
Budget spending in May reached 2.6 trillion rubles ($33.8 billion), and 18.1 trillion rubles ($235.3 billion) over five months, exceeding last year’s figures by 3.1 trillion rubles ($40.3 billion). The Finance Ministry remains confident that the budget will meet the updated plan, partly financed by extra non-oil and gas revenues from late 2024.
Analysts at tverdyye Tsifry observed that spending remains on a high trajectory,with an annual growth rate of 21% for January-May.
To meet the revised annual target, Gazprombank analysts estimate the Finance Ministry needs to maintain a monthly surplus of 270 billion rubles ($3.51 billion) from May through November.
Experts at the Gaidar Institute predicted the budget deficit would improve after peaking in May-June. However, they cautioned that economic slowdown, trade conditions, high interest rates, and geopolitical challenges are straining the budget.
Still, they suggest borrowing and using liquid assets from the National Welfare Fund could cover the shortfall. The liquid portion of the fund had decreased to 2.8 trillion rubles ($36.4 billion) by the end of May, with 447 billion rubles ($5.81 billion) allocated to cover the oil and gas revenue shortfall.
What’s next
The Finance Ministry plans total spending of 42.3 trillion rubles ($549.9 billion) for the year,requiring a 3.9% spending cut in the second half compared to June-December 2024, according to MMI analysts. The government will likely explore various measures to stabilize the budget amid ongoing economic pressures.