Russia Considers Nuclear Strike in Ukraine
- WASHINGTON (AP) — In late 2022, the U.S. intelligence community assessed a heightened risk that Russia might deploy a tactical nuclear weapon in Ukraine, according to a report.
- Sergei Surovikin, then commander of Russian forces in Ukraine, reportedly considered a tactical nuclear strike to halt Ukrainian troops pushing toward the Dnieper River, the report stated.
- intelligence initially estimated the probability of such a strike at 5% to 10%.
U.S. weighed Risk of Russian Nuclear Strike in ukraine, Considered Kyiv’s Offensive
Table of Contents
- U.S. weighed Risk of Russian Nuclear Strike in ukraine, Considered Kyiv’s Offensive
- Surovikin’s Nuclear Threat
- U.S. Intelligence Support and Strategic Concerns
- Kherson Liberation and Stalled offensive
- Failed 2023 Counteroffensive
- Crimean Bridge Attacks
- U.S. Weighs Risk of Russian Nuclear Strike in Ukraine: A Deep dive
- Did the U.S. Consider the Risk of a Russian Nuclear Strike in Ukraine?
- What Prompted this Assessment?
- Who Considered a Nuclear Strike Within the Russian Military?
- What Was the Initial Risk Assessment for a Nuclear Strike?
- How Did the Risk Assessment Change?
- What Was the U.S. Response to the Heightened Nuclear Risk?
- Were There Strategic Concerns Within the Biden Administration?
- what Ukrainian Offensive Was Underway at this time?
- What Happened to the Ukrainian Offensive?
WASHINGTON (AP) — In late 2022, the U.S. intelligence community assessed a heightened risk that Russia might deploy a tactical nuclear weapon in Ukraine, according to a report. The assessment followed discussions within the Russian military about potential responses to Ukrainian advances.
Surovikin’s Nuclear Threat
Gen. Sergei Surovikin, then commander of Russian forces in Ukraine, reportedly considered a tactical nuclear strike to halt Ukrainian troops pushing toward the Dnieper River, the report stated. This consideration became known through intercepted communications.
U.S. intelligence initially estimated the probability of such a strike at 5% to 10%. However, that risk assessment soon jumped to 50%, according to the report.
U.S. Intelligence Support and Strategic Concerns
Despite the elevated nuclear risk, the U.S. continued providing Ukraine with intelligence support and encouraged the continuation of the southern offensive. Concurrently, advisers to President Joe Biden reportedly debated whether the U.S. was overinvested in the Ukrainian military’s advance.
Kherson Liberation and Stalled offensive
The period in question coincided with a successful Ukrainian counteroffensive that liberated Kherson and the west bank of the Kherson region. However, the offensive later stalled, reportedly due to ammunition shortages.
Failed 2023 Counteroffensive
A separate report indicated that Ukraine’s 2023 counteroffensive fell short of its goals after Kyiv deviated from an initial strategy developed with U.S. support.The original plan called for concentrating forces on a single axis of advance to achieve a decisive breakthrough.
Instead, Ukrainian command opted to launch offensives on three separate fronts, a decision the U.S. was not informed of beforehand, according to the report.
Crimean Bridge Attacks
The report also detailed preparations for attacks on the Crimean Bridge.ukraine allegedly conducted a secret, but ultimately unsuccessful, third attempt to strike the bridge last summer.
U.S. Weighs Risk of Russian Nuclear Strike in Ukraine: A Deep dive
This article explores the U.S. intelligence community’s assessment of the risk of a Russian nuclear strike in late 2022, based on a recent report. It also examines the strategic considerations surrounding the Ukrainian offensive during that period.
Did the U.S. Consider the Risk of a Russian Nuclear Strike in Ukraine?
Yes, according to a recent report, the U.S. intelligence community weighed the risk of Russia deploying a tactical nuclear weapon in Ukraine in late 2022. This assessment came amidst discussions within the Russian military about potential responses to Ukrainian advances.
What Prompted this Assessment?
The assessment of potential Russian nuclear use followed discussions within the Russian military about how to respond to Ukrainian troop advances.
Who Considered a Nuclear Strike Within the Russian Military?
Gen. Sergei Surovikin, who was then the commander of Russian forces in Ukraine, reportedly considered a tactical nuclear strike. The report indicates this consideration was revealed through intercepted communications.
What Was the Initial Risk Assessment for a Nuclear Strike?
U.S. intelligence initially estimated the probability of a Russian tactical nuclear strike at 5% to 10%.
How Did the Risk Assessment Change?
The U.S. intelligence’s risk assessment substantially increased. the probability of a Russian nuclear strike jumped from an initial estimate of 5-10% to 50%, according to the report.
What Was the U.S. Response to the Heightened Nuclear Risk?
Despite the elevated risk of a nuclear strike,the U.S. continued to offer intelligence support to Ukraine. Moreover, they encouraged the continuation of the southern offensive.
Were There Strategic Concerns Within the Biden Administration?
Yes, there were strategic concerns. Advisors to President Joe Biden reportedly debated whether the U.S. was overinvested in Ukraine’s military advance, while the U.S. continued to support Ukraine.
what Ukrainian Offensive Was Underway at this time?
the period in question coincided with a successful Ukrainian counteroffensive that liberated Kherson and the west bank of the Kherson region.
What Happened to the Ukrainian Offensive?
While