Russia Migrant Expulsion Analysis
Kyrgyzstan Grapples with Declining Migrant Workforce in Russia Amidst Stricter registration Rules
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Kyrgyzstan faces a significant challenge as the number of its citizens working in Russia plummets, raising concerns about economic stability and potential social unrest both at home and abroad.
The Shrinking Kyrgyz Presence in Russia
Recent reports indicate a dramatic decrease in the number of Kyrgyz citizens working in Russia. While Kyrgyzstan’s Labor Ministry reported over 1.5 million Kyrgyz citizens working as migrant laborers in 2022, with a significant 1.063 million in Russia, the situation has drastically changed. By January 2025,Kyrgyzstan’s Foreign ministry stated that the number of Kyrgyz living and working in Russia had fallen to approximately 650,000 in 2023 and further to around 350,000 in 2024. Ambassador Bokontayev cited figures from Russia’s Interior Ministry,showing the number of Kyrgyz citizens in Russia in the frist quarter of 2025 stood at approximately 352,000.
This sharp decline is largely attributed to russia’s tightening of registration requirements for foreign workers. As a member of the Russian-led Eurasian Economic Union (EAEU), which includes Armenia, belarus, and Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan’s citizens have historically enjoyed easier access and social benefits, such as healthcare, in Russia compared to those from non-member countries. However, even with these advantages, Kyrgyz migrant laborers are reportedly struggling to navigate the new, more stringent legal registration processes.
EAEU Membership and Mounting Challenges
The EAEU framework was designed to facilitate the free movement of labor and capital among member states. For Kyrgyzstan, a nation heavily reliant on remittances from its migrant workers, this arrangement has been crucial for economic stability. the current difficulties faced by Kyrgyz citizens in legally registering themselves in Russia suggest that the challenges are likely even greater for citizens of Tajikistan and Uzbekistan, who are not EAEU members and already face more hurdles in entering Russia and obtaining necessary official approvals.While the exact number of Tajik and Uzbek citizens on Russia’s “gray list” is unclear, it is almost certainly higher than that of Kyrgyz citizens.
Diplomatic Efforts and Looming Deadlines
recognizing the gravity of the situation, Kyrgyz President sadyr Japarov visited Russia at the start of July and met with his russian counterpart, vladimir Putin. Japarov specifically requested Russian assistance in ensuring that Kyrgyz citizens are legally registered in russia before a looming September 10 deadline. it is anticipated that the Tajik and uzbek governments are also actively engaging with Russian authorities to help their citizens meet this deadline.
The potential return of tens of thousands of Central Asian citizens to their home countries, where they woudl likely swell the ranks of the unemployed, is a scenario that Central Asian leaders are keen to avoid. Such a mass influx could trigger significant social tensions and economic strain.
Russia’s Stance and Potential Compromises
Russia, while seeking to maintain its migrant workforce, has made it clear that it does not wish to accommodate the families of migrant laborers, specifically stating a desire to ban wives and children from accompanying them. This policy aims to streamline the migrant population and potentially reduce social welfare burdens.
While a compromise between Russia and the Central Asian nations seems probable, Russian authorities may resort to mass expulsions after the deadline to underscore their commitment to ensuring that all migrants within the country are legally registered and employed. The coming months will be critical in determining the future of Central Asian labor migration to Russia and its impact on the region’s socio-economic landscape.
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Bruce Pannier is a Central Asia Fellow in the Eurasia Program at the Foreign Policy Research Institute, a member of the advisory board at the Caspian Policy Center, and a longtime journalist and correspondent covering Central Asia. He currently appears regularly on the Majlis podcast for RFE/RL.*