Russia-Ukraine War: West’s Complacency Risks Putin Victory – A Year On

A year after its publication, Carlo Masala’s warning in If Russia Wins about Western complacency appears increasingly prescient, according to Rainer Zitelmann.

Masala completed his book, “Wenn Russland gewinnt” (“If Russia Wins”), one year ago. The book, intended as a warning, is now more relevant than ever, having reached number one on the German bestseller list.

Masala’s central argument isn’t a prediction of a large-scale Russian attack on Europe or a Third World War. Instead, he posits that a Russian victory already exists if Russia is able to retain the 20 percent of Ukrainian territory it currently occupies. He suggests the West falsely believes international law won’t recognize the annexation, while Russia celebrates a de facto victory.

Masala’s scenario extends beyond this initial gain. He foresees a future where Russia attacks the Estonian city of Narva, under the guise of protecting Russian residents. This attack would be deliberately limited in scope, designed to violate NATO territory without triggering a full-scale war, as the United States and Western Europe hesitate to risk global conflict over a relatively small city.

Masala believes only Eastern European nations would recognize the true risk, while the West would falter. He argues that after the Ukraine war, Western European nations failed to adequately strengthen their military capabilities, leaving them unprepared for future aggression.

Appeasement

Masala criticizes what he describes as Western appeasement, a policy he believes contributed to the current situation in Ukraine. He highlights Russia’s repeated use of nuclear threats as a tool to deter Western intervention. According to Masala, “Every military aid delivery to Ukraine was made under the fear scenario of a possible nuclear escalation, always came too late in view of the military situation, and was always too little to put the country in a position to successfully defend itself against Russia.” He suggests Russia has learned that these threats are effective in limiting Western support.

Masala contends that Russia’s economic and military weaknesses are often overlooked, attributing its success to the perceived weakness and fear within the West.

In his scenario, a French president from the Rassemblement National is depicted saying, “One has seen how the war-mongering countries not only almost ruined their own economies, but also unnecessarily dragged out this war – whose final outcome could already have been achieved a year and a half earlier – and thereby deprived thousands, if not hundreds of thousands, of Ukrainians of the chance to still be alive today.”

Masala’s scenario is described as frighteningly realistic because it doesn’t rely on extreme predictions, but rather extrapolates from observed trends since the beginning of the Russian invasion of Ukraine.

Rainer Zitelmann is an author and historian