Private software companies are opening their books to lenders earlier than usual, a move intended to assuage concerns about potential disruption from artificial intelligence. McAfee, Rocket Software, Perforce Software, and Cloudera all recently shared financial data with their debt holders, according to a report from Bloomberg.
The unusual disclosure comes amid a broader selloff in software debt, fueled by anxieties over what’s been dubbed “SaaSpocalypse” – the potential for AI to erode revenue growth in the software industry. Investors are increasingly worried that AI-powered tools could diminish the need for traditional software subscriptions, impacting the financial performance of companies reliant on those recurring revenues.
The early earnings releases paint a mixed picture. McAfee reported that its fourth-quarter revenue remained largely flat compared to the previous year. Rocket Software, however, indicated a 5.2% year-over-year revenue increase for 2025. Perforce Software experienced a slight decline in revenue for the same period, while Cloudera highlighted a strong fourth quarter and record performance for its fiscal year.
Cloudera CEO Charles Sansbury stated in a press release that the company is “uniquely positioned to help” enterprises leverage AI across their data environments. He emphasized the company’s strong momentum and roadmap as it enters fiscal year 2027.
The concerns extend beyond private companies. A recent report from Goldman Sachs indicates that despite the anxieties surrounding AI disruption, earnings estimates for software companies have actually increased by 5% over the past three months. This suggests that, at least for now, the feared earnings collapse hasn’t materialized in reported numbers. However, the report also cautions that the long-term impact of AI on earnings remains a subject of debate.
The market’s reaction tells a different story. A UBS basket of U.S. Stocks considered vulnerable to AI disruption has fallen by 50% over the past year, a stark contrast to the positive revisions in earnings estimates. This disconnect highlights the uncertainty surrounding the future of the software industry in the age of AI.
The anxieties are rooted in the evolving nature of software consumption. As PYMNTS reported earlier this month, agentic systems – AI-powered tools capable of automating complex tasks – could bypass entire layers of traditional software applications. Which means companies might be able to execute processes like financial reconciliation, human resources management, and customer relationship management through conversational interfaces, reducing the need for extensive software subscriptions.
This shift is prompting software vendors to experiment with new pricing models. The traditional per-user subscription model, which relies on a direct correlation between headcount and software revenue, is increasingly being challenged. Companies are now exploring pricing tied to factors like tokens consumed, workflows executed, transactions processed, or measurable business outcomes delivered. This represents a fundamental recalibration of SaaS economics, as the link between employee numbers and software revenue weakens.
The capital cycle supporting AI infrastructure also remains robust. Goldman Sachs analysts now expect capital expenditure by hyperscalers – large-scale data centers – to be 22% above previous estimates for . This level of investment intensity exceeds that seen during the dot-com boom of the late 1990s, indicating a significant commitment to building the infrastructure necessary to support AI development and deployment.
The current situation presents a complex picture. While reported earnings have remained resilient, market pricing suggests significant concerns about the long-term impact of AI. The willingness of private software companies to proactively share financial data with lenders underscores the level of anxiety within the industry. The shift towards outcome-based pricing models signals a recognition that the traditional software paradigm is undergoing a fundamental transformation. The coming months will be crucial in determining whether the current strength in earnings revisions is a temporary reprieve or a sign that the software industry can successfully navigate the challenges and opportunities presented by artificial intelligence.
The broader market has already felt the impact of these concerns. AI-related worries have erased over $1 trillion from the market values of major tech firms, demonstrating the scale of investor apprehension.
