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Son Heung-min Surpasses Expectations in Premier League Scoring Race

With his 15th goal of the season, he is tied for 5th in the scoring positions and is chasing the lead.

Son Heung-min’s actual score was significantly higher than his expected score.

Heung-min’s son. ⓒ AP = News

Tottenham’s Son, Heung-min, dominates the Premier League with his ability to score a goal of a different order.

Son Heung-min, who scored his 15th league goal in the home game against Luton Town last weekend, is 5th in the Premier League scoring charts this season.

At the moment, the top scorer is Manchester City’s top scorer Erling Haaland with 18 goals, while three players including Mohamed Salah (Liverpool), Olly Watkins (Aston Villa) and Dominic Solanke (Bournemouth) have 16 goals, and Son Heung-min and Jerrod Bowen (West Ham) following behind.

With less than 10 games remaining for each team, the race to be the top scorer in the EPL is still in limbo.

What stands out is Son Heung-min’s unmatched goal-making ability.

Recently, in football, as in baseball, there is a trend of statistics on the abilities of players, and among the various numbers, there is something called xG (expected goals). xG refers to the probability of scoring when shooting from a specific position and in a specific situation.

In the case of Son Heung-min, he records an xG of 9.65, which can be interpreted as having scored 9.65 goals in certain positions or situations this season.

The top scorer in this category is Erling Holland. Holland’s xG value is 22.39, which is much higher than second place Solanke (17.21).

xGDiff EPL site. ⓒ Daily Sports

However, if the range is different based on goal-making power, the story is different. A more detailed example is xGDiff (xG-score). In other words, a player with a high xGDiff means that he has actually scored more goals than expected, which means he has excellent decision-making power.

Son Heung-min ranks first in the Premier League at xGDiff. Son Heung-min, who actually scored 15 goals, has an xG of 9.65, so his xGDiff value reaches a whopping 5.35. In other words, Son Heung-min scored 5.35 more goals than the expected score.

Holland’s xGDiff is rather negative. With 18 goals, Holland has an xG of 22.39, resulting in an xGDiff of -4.39. Therefore, it can be interpreted that Holland scored fewer goals than expected.

So who is the lowest player in this category? This is Everton’s Dominic Calvert-Lewin. Calvert-Lewin’s xG value is 9.6, similar to Son Heung-min’s, but he actually scored only 3 goals.

In fact, Calvert-Lewin had 54 shooting opportunities, which is not much different from Son Heung-min (67 shots). However, Son Heung-min and Calvert-Lewin’s actual scores were 15 goals and 3 goals, showing great joy.

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