South Africa is forging ahead with an ambitious, yet complex, energy transition plan aimed at reducing its reliance on coal, which currently provides the majority of its power. The government’s recently approved Integrated Resource Plan 2025 (IRP) earmarks $130 billion for 105 GW of new non-coal generation capacity by , a move intended to cut coal’s dominance in the country’s energy mix by more than half.
However, the path forward is fraught with challenges. While officials emphasize a commitment to cleaner energy sources, the plan acknowledges that an abrupt abandonment of coal is not feasible. Electricity and Energy Minister Kgosientsho Ramokgopa stated, We are going to get cleaner, but we are not abandoning coal.
This pragmatic approach reflects concerns about energy security and the potential socio-economic fallout from rapidly decommissioning coal-fired power plants.
Currently, coal accounts for approximately 58% of South Africa’s generation capacity. The IRP projects this figure will decrease to 27% by , not through a significant reduction in overall coal-fired megawatt production, but rather through the expansion of other energy sources. The plan anticipates a modest decline in coal plant output to 40.9 GW of installed capacity by , compared to the current 45.3 GW.
This nuanced strategy is driven by the need to balance environmental concerns with economic realities. The coal value chain remains a significant employer, particularly in provinces like Mpumalanga, which generates roughly 84% of the coal sector’s economic output and employs 85% of its workforce. Coal contributes approximately 20% to Mpumalanga’s economy, impacting local municipalities where it represents between 19% and 42% of economic activity. A rapid shift away from coal could therefore have extensive repercussions across various sectors
, including retail and hospitality, according to analysts.
The IRP also acknowledges the importance of maintaining a reliable energy supply. It projects an energy availability factor (EAF) of roughly 66-68% for coal-fired stations between and . This suggests a continued reliance on coal as a baseload power source while new renewable energy projects are developed and integrated into the grid.
South Africa is exploring clean coal technology options
as a potential bridge to a lower-carbon future. Minister Ramokgopa indicated a focus on alternative solutions that could be cheaper and more efficient than traditional flue gas desulphurization, which removes sulphur dioxide from industrial exhaust gases. A demonstration plant for these technologies is planned to be operational by .
The timing of this energy transition is particularly significant as South Africa prepares to host discussions surrounding climate finance at the upcoming COP29 conference in Baku, Azerbaijan, in November . The conference is expected to focus on securing the trillions of dollars needed to reduce greenhouse gas emissions and support vulnerable communities. South Africa’s updated national climate action plans, due by early , will be crucial in demonstrating its commitment to climate goals.
However, the transition is not without its critics. Communities in coal-mining towns report a lack of tangible progress on the ground, citing persistent pollution and alleged threats against activists. Concerns are also being raised about the pace of job creation in the renewable energy sector compared to the potential job losses in the coal industry. A metalworkers’ union leader involved in South Africa’s climate commission has suggested the transition is racing forward, outpacing new jobs promised to mine workers
.
The complexities of the transition are further highlighted by the role of natural gas. While not explicitly detailed in the provided documents, broader analysis suggests natural gas is viewed as an important, albeit limited, component of Africa’s overall energy transition. The need for a diversified energy mix, coupled with the existing infrastructure for coal-fired power plants, may necessitate the use of gas as a transitional fuel.
The success of South Africa’s energy transition will depend on its ability to navigate these competing priorities. Balancing the need for energy security, economic stability, and environmental sustainability will require careful planning, significant investment, and ongoing dialogue with stakeholders, including communities, labor unions, and the private sector. The country’s approach will likely serve as a case study for other developing nations grappling with similar challenges as they strive to meet their climate commitments.
The IRP’s emphasis on a pragmatic approach, acknowledging the continued role of coal while investing in renewable energy and exploring clean coal technologies, reflects the unique circumstances facing South Africa. Eskom’s coal-fired power plants currently consume around 100 mt/y of coal, typically 4,800 kc NAR material, demonstrating the scale of the challenge and the need for a carefully managed transition.
