State of Southeast Asia Survey 2026: The Balancing Act

China has emerged as the preferred superpower for Southeast Asian opinion leaders, surpassing the United States in a regional survey released on April 7, 2026. The State of Southeast Asia 2026 Survey, conducted by the ASEAN Studies Centre at the ISEAS – Yusof Ishak Institute, indicates that 52 per cent of surveyed thought leaders and opinion-makers would align with China if forced to choose between the two powers, compared to 48 per cent for the United States.

This result marks a reversal of the trend observed in 2025. Despite this preference, the report notes that the region continues to desire a strategic balance rather than a formal alignment with one superpower.

Geopolitical Fears and US Leadership

The survey identifies the foreign policies of US President Donald Trump as the primary geopolitical concern for the region. The leadership of the US during the Trump 2.0 Administration was cited as the top concern by 51.9 per cent of respondents.

This fear of US foreign policy now outweighs concerns regarding aggression in the South China Sea, which was ranked as the third-largest concern at 48.2 per cent. Other significant regional fears identified in the survey include:

• Global scam operations, cited by 51.4 per cent of respondents.
• The border conflict between Thailand and Cambodia, cited by 40.5 per cent of respondents.

Regional Trust and Concerns

While China is the preferred superpower, it is not the most trusted partner in the region. Japan remains the most trusted partner for ASEAN, with a trust level of 65.6 per cent, followed by the European Union at 55.9 per cent.

The survey also highlighted specific anxieties regarding China’s influence. Approximately 30.3 per cent of respondents identified China’s domestic interference as a key concern.

Survey Scope and Methodology

The eighth iteration of the survey was conducted by the ASEAN Studies Centre between January and February 2026. For the first time, responses from Timor-Leste, the newest member of ASEAN, were included in the regional aggregated averages.

The research sought to provide insights into how Southeast Asian leaders are recalibrating their strategic outlook amid intensifying major power rivalries, trade uncertainties and renewed tariffs. The survey explored several critical themes, including:

• The resilience and relevance of ASEAN.
• Responses to rising nationalism and protectionism.
• The emergence of new informal groupings.
• The impact of the US-China rivalry on Southeast Asia.
• Levels of trust in major powers and the role of soft power.

Discussion and Analysis

The findings were presented during an event hosted by the ISEAS – Yusof Ishak Institute on April 6 and 7, 2026. The discussion was moderated by Ng Chee Khern, Director and CEO of the institute, with the key findings presented by Joanne Lin, Senior Fellow and Coordinator of the ASEAN Studies Centre.

A high-level panel convened to analyze the results included the following experts:

• Ambassador Scot Marciel, Senior Advisor at BowerGroupAsia.
• Dr. Saya Kiba from the Kobe City University of Foreign Studies in Japan.
• Dr. Wang Huiyao, Founder and President of the Center for China and Globalization in China.
• Professor Herman Kraft from the University of the Philippines at Diliman.

The overarching conclusion of the report suggests that maintaining a balance between global powers has become increasingly difficult for Southeast Asian nations as they navigate the complexities of the current geopolitical landscape.