The Dangers of Prolonged War in Sudan

A. Babakir⁢ Faisal, Head of the ⁤Executive Office of the Federal Assembly

September 16, 2024

Since⁢ the outbreak⁢ of war on⁣ April 15, civil forces, particularly the Freedom and Change movement, have warned that continued conflict​ would lead to disastrous consequences, including the fragmentation of the country’s unity. The call to continue the war under​ the pretext of protecting state institutions will ultimately result ⁢in the loss of the ‍state itself.

The Islamic ​Movement’s Plan to Regain Power

After the failure of its plan to resolve the war in a short ⁤period, the Islamic Movement and its party, the National Congress, ⁣have been working to regain power and control through the military,⁣ security, and battalions. They have also been adhering to the legitimacy of the coup government of October 25, 2021, when dealing with the‍ international ⁣community.

As ⁣the war enters its seventeenth month, the army has lost significant ‌ground, and the issue of⁣ consolidating the legitimacy⁣ of control has become the primary concern of the Islamic Movement and its strong core in the military and security services. The formation of a government that ⁣exercises its powers in limited states (6 out of 18 states) ‍has been proposed,‍ without considering the dire consequences ‍of such a method.

The National Congress’s Call for​ a‍ Transitional Government

The National Congress has ⁢increased pressure ⁢on the army leadership to form a government, despite opposition from some of the army’s allies in the war. The head of the army announced in a press conference on August 24 that ‌work was underway to form a government, which would focus on improving living and economic conditions.

About ‌a month after the army chief’s statement, the government⁣ has​ not been formed, and the National Congress has continued to pressure the army leadership to form a government. In a ​statement published on September 15, the National Congress reiterated its call⁢ for a transitional government of non-partisan professional competences, which would address ⁣the concerns of citizens in supporting the war effort, the economy, education, and other services.

The Risk of Division and‌ Fragmentation

The National Congress realizes that the announcement of a government will be met with the announcement of another government by the⁤ Rapid Aid Forces, ⁢within the framework of the conflict ⁤and competition for legitimacy between the two warring⁣ parties. This will lead to the ‌country entering a scheme of division and fragmentation, which will undoubtedly find regional and international parties that support it to achieve their ⁣own goals and ambitions.

The lesson of history teaches us that​ the Islamic movement does not hesitate to divide⁢ the country and fragment‌ its unity ⁤in⁢ exchange for remaining in power.⁣ The‌ experience of the secession of South Sudan ‍and its plans since the “Hamdi Triangle” are clear ⁣evidence of this.

The Consequences of Prolonged War

The prolongation of the war, in addition to the great material ⁢destruction, loss of life, and pain of displacement, will lead⁢ to ⁢the loss of the country itself, contrary to what the advocates‌ of preserving state institutions promote. The conflict and competition for legitimacy will undoubtedly lead to taking steps that would⁣ seriously threaten the unity of the country, which is what the Islamic movement aims to ⁤achieve.