The Dangers of Prolonged War in Sudan

A. Babakir Faisal, Head of the Executive Office of the Federal Assembly

September 16, 2024

Since the outbreak of war on April 15, civil forces, particularly the Freedom and Change movement, have warned that continued conflict would lead to disastrous consequences, including the fragmentation of the country’s unity. The call to continue the war under the pretext of protecting state institutions will ultimately result in the loss of the state itself.

The Islamic Movement’s Plan to Regain Power

After the failure of its plan to resolve the war in a short period, the Islamic Movement and its party, the National Congress, have been working to regain power and control through the military, security, and battalions. They have also been adhering to the legitimacy of the coup government of October 25, 2021, when dealing with the international community.

As the war enters its seventeenth month, the army has lost significant ground, and the issue of consolidating the legitimacy of control has become the primary concern of the Islamic Movement and its strong core in the military and security services. The formation of a government that exercises its powers in limited states (6 out of 18 states) has been proposed, without considering the dire consequences of such a method.

The National Congress’s Call for a Transitional Government

The National Congress has increased pressure on the army leadership to form a government, despite opposition from some of the army’s allies in the war. The head of the army announced in a press conference on August 24 that work was underway to form a government, which would focus on improving living and economic conditions.

About a month after the army chief’s statement, the government has not been formed, and the National Congress has continued to pressure the army leadership to form a government. In a statement published on September 15, the National Congress reiterated its call for a transitional government of non-partisan professional competences, which would address the concerns of citizens in supporting the war effort, the economy, education, and other services.

The Risk of Division and Fragmentation

The National Congress realizes that the announcement of a government will be met with the announcement of another government by the Rapid Aid Forces, within the framework of the conflict and competition for legitimacy between the two warring parties. This will lead to the country entering a scheme of division and fragmentation, which will undoubtedly find regional and international parties that support it to achieve their own goals and ambitions.

The lesson of history teaches us that the Islamic movement does not hesitate to divide the country and fragment its unity in exchange for remaining in power. The experience of the secession of South Sudan and its plans since the “Hamdi Triangle” are clear evidence of this.

The Consequences of Prolonged War

The prolongation of the war, in addition to the great material destruction, loss of life, and pain of displacement, will lead to the loss of the country itself, contrary to what the advocates of preserving state institutions promote. The conflict and competition for legitimacy will undoubtedly lead to taking steps that would seriously threaten the unity of the country, which is what the Islamic movement aims to achieve.