Northeast Syria is undergoing a significant shift in power dynamics, as the Syrian government reasserts control over areas previously held by Kurdish-led forces. The changes, unfolding over recent weeks, raise concerns about the future of the region’s Kurdish population and the potential resurgence of Islamic State (IS) activity.
Government forces launched an offensive on , aiming to recapture territory controlled by the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) after negotiations regarding the integration of Kurdish forces into the Syrian army failed. The offensive targeted resource-rich areas and major border crossings with Iraq and Turkey, areas the SDF had controlled for a decade since defeating IS in the region. The operation has resulted in the displacement of over 134,000 people, according to reports.
The shift marks a dramatic change in alliances. For years, the US and the SDF worked closely together to combat IS, with the US providing air support and the SDF serving as the primary ground force. The SDF lost approximately 11,000 fighters battling IS. However, the US has now signaled its support for Syria’s interim president, Ahmed al-Sharaa, a former Jihadi, a move described by some Kurdish fighters as a betrayal. The US military has begun moving detainees from Syria to facilities in Iraq amid concerns about potential escapes following the SDF’s retreat, though some prisoners were able to escape during the conflict.
A ceasefire agreement was reached on , outlining the integration of Kurdish forces into the Syrian armed forces. However, the agreement remains fragile. The government’s offensive has been accompanied by reports of mistreatment of civilians and alleged Islamic State-style killings of SDF forces and civilians.
The changes are occurring after the fall of Bashar al-Assad, a period during which minority groups in Syria have faced increased violence. The international community has largely remained silent regarding the situation, according to observers.
The Kurdish population, comprising roughly 10% of Syria’s population, has long sought autonomy for the Kurdish-populated regions in the north and east. The recent developments threaten that aspiration. “History will hold them accountable,” said Commander Azad, a veteran Syrian Kurdish fighter, referring to the US. “Morally it’s not right. But we will keep fighting until our last breath. We are not cry-babies.”
The situation is further complicated by the presence of thousands of former IS fighters and their families held in prisons and camps run by the SDF, including the al-Hol camp, which reportedly held approximately 24,000 detainees, primarily women and children, as well as diehard IS supporters. The potential for IS to exploit the chaos and regroup is a major concern.
“This is the biggest change that has happened in Syria since Bashar al Assad was ousted in December 2024, and the biggest change for the Kurds in ten years,” said Pinar Tank, a senior researcher at Prio. “For the Kurds, it is a loss, the biggest loss they could have had. It is difficult to understand that it has happened so quickly.”
Reports from the ground indicate a dire humanitarian situation. In the city of Kobani, residents have faced shortages of food, water, and electricity. Internally displaced Kurds are reportedly sheltering in schools and public buildings. One resident of Qamishli described witnessing the death of a 17-year-old boy from the cold in a displacement camp. Concerns are also growing about potential human rights abuses, with both sides accused of committing violations. Human Rights Watch has cited unverified videos circulating on social media alleging atrocities committed by both sides.
The shift in US policy, with the US no longer supporting the SDF, has left many Kurds feeling abandoned. The new alignment with President al-Sharaa, a figure with a history linked to extremist groups, has raised further anxieties. “I am afraid that Islamists will come here and kill us and say we are not proper Muslims,” said one resident of Qamishli, expressing fears of renewed persecution.
International powers, including the US, France, Germany, and the UK, have emphasized the need to focus on combating IS and have announced plans to convene a meeting of the international coalition against the group. The situation remains fluid, and the long-term implications for Syria and the region are uncertain.
