Dhaka, Bangladesh – As Bangladesh prepares to head to the polls on , the nation finds itself at a pivotal juncture, its first national election since the dramatic removal of former Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina in . With the Awami League barred from participating, the political landscape is dominated by two primary alliances: one led by the Bangladesh Nationalist Party (BNP) and the other by Jamaat-e-Islami, each presenting distinct visions for the country’s future.
The ousting of Hasina, following a student-led uprising in that resulted in the deaths of 1,400 people, ushered in an interim administration led by Nobel laureate Muhammad Yunus. The subsequent ban on the Awami League has created an unprecedented electoral dynamic, leaving the BNP and Jamaat-e-Islami to vie for power amidst economic strain, political upheaval, and concerns over minority rights.
BNP’s Path to Power
The BNP, now under the leadership of Tarique Rahman, the 60-year-old son of former Prime Minister Khaleda Zia and former President Ziaur Rahman, appears to be gaining momentum. Opinion polls suggest the BNP-led alliance currently holds an advantage. The party is contesting 292 of the 300 parliamentary seats, partnering with over half a dozen smaller parties to broaden its reach.
The BNP’s manifesto centers on addressing economic hardship and strengthening democratic institutions. Key promises include financial aid for impoverished families, a constitutional limit of ten years for any individual serving as prime minister, and measures to stimulate economic growth through foreign investment. Anti-corruption efforts also feature prominently in their platform.
Jamaat-e-Islami’s Resurgence
The Jamaat-e-Islami, an Islamist party historically opposed to Bangladesh’s independence in , has experienced a resurgence since Hasina’s removal from power. Previously banned for years under Hasina’s administration, the party is now poised to achieve its best electoral performance. Its alliance, comprised of 11 parties, includes the National Citizen Party (NCP), a group of youth activists who played a crucial role in the protests that led to Hasina’s downfall.
Shafiqur Rahman leads Jamaat-e-Islami and is likely to become prime minister should the alliance secure victory. The party is contesting 224 seats, with the NCP fielding candidates in 30 constituencies and other coalition partners dividing the remaining seats.
Jamaat’s platform focuses on economic revitalization, improved relations with neighboring countries, and diversification of the economy. Recognizing the country’s heavy reliance on the garment export industry, the party proposes promoting alternative sectors, such as leather goods, to foster more sustainable economic growth. The party advocates for a society governed by Islamic principles.
Geopolitical Implications and Regional Context
The outcome of this election carries significant geopolitical implications for the region. Bangladesh, strategically located between India and Myanmar, plays a crucial role in regional trade and security. The potential for a Jamaat-led government, with its stated commitment to strengthening ties with neighbors, could reshape Bangladesh’s foreign policy orientation.
India, which has historically maintained close ties with the Awami League, will be closely watching the election results. The Jamaat-e-Islami has previously pledged “constructive” ties with India, but its ideological leanings and past opposition to Bangladesh’s independence raise questions about the future of bilateral relations.
The election also comes amidst growing concerns about political instability and human rights in Bangladesh. The violent crackdown on protesters in , which led to the deaths of 1,400 people, and the subsequent sentencing of Hasina to death – though she remains in exile in India – have raised international concerns about the rule of law and democratic governance. The July National Charter 2025, drafted following the protests, aims to establish a framework for future governance, but its implementation will depend on the outcome of the election and the priorities of the new government.
The election represents a critical turning point for Bangladesh, offering an opportunity to address long-standing economic and political challenges. However, the absence of the Awami League and the rise of Islamist parties also present potential risks, raising questions about the country’s future trajectory and its role in the region. The international community will be closely monitoring the election process and its aftermath, hoping for a peaceful and democratic transition of power.