The yen has been on a roller coaster depreciation in recent days, and even fell to a 34-year low on Wednesday, once falling below 155 yen per US dollar. As for the subsequent trend of the yen, Taishinjin Chief EconomistLi ZhenyuToday pointed out that the latest personal consumer price index (PCE) released by the United States tonight will be an important key. If the PCE does not fall back, but continues to rise, the U.S. interest rate cut may be delayed again, and the yen will fall below 156 soon, and it will be even bigger by then. The impact will be greater pressure on Asian currencies to depreciate, and an Asian currency war will begin.
Li Zhenyu pointed out that the U.S. interest rate cut has not only been delayed but also significantly revised, and that the European Central Bank will cut interest rates on both sides in June: “The original wishful thinking of the Bank of Japan may not be able to survive!” He analyzed that the Bank of Japan (Central Bank of Japan) will cut interest rates on both sides. ) last time it raised interest rates “only by half”, it did not really let go of the interest rate hike. It planned to raise interest rates again in October this year, because according to the original sand table deduction, it is expected thatFederal ReserveAfter lowering interest rates by 2 percentage points (1 percentage point is 0.25 percentage points) in June and September respectively, the Bank of Japan raised interest rates again, but now the entire situation has reversed, which is very different from the previous sand table deduction scenario.
Li Zhenyu pointed out that the European Central Bank’s interest rate cut in June will only make the U.S. dollar stronger. Now the U.S. dollar index has exceeded 105, which has also affected the continued depreciation of the Japanese yen. It even broke 155 during the session. Therefore, the Bank of Japan is now also facing greater pressure to sell in advance. . Regarding PCE in the United States, Li Zhenyu analyzed that the previous increase in PCE in the United States was mainly related to a one-time increase in premiums. If PCE can decrease this time,Japanese yen exchange rateIt is expected that the depreciation will stop, but if the PCE still rises this time: “The yen may fall below 156 next!”
Li Zhenyu further reminded that if the yen weakens below 156, the next greater impact will come from greater depreciation pressure on the entire Asian currency, and a currency war in which Asian currencies will compete for depreciation is about to begin. If we look at the impact on each country, Li Zhenyu analyzed that the financial and capital markets of Southeast Asian countries have been greatly affected, because compared with Japan, South Korea and Taiwan, the industrial highlights in Southeast Asia, such as AI, semiconductors, etc., are relatively insignificant. In Taiwan, because Taiwan has many star stocks in the AI and semiconductor industries, the impact of the Asian currency depreciation on Taiwan is relatively small.
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