Tampa Bay Rays and Cleveland Guardians Open American League Championship Series
- The American League Championship Series begins tomorrow at 7pm CT as the top-seeded Tampa Bay Rays host the Cleveland Guardians in a seven-game set.
- Pitching anchors both rosters, though the Rays arrive well-rested after sweeping the New York Yankees in three games during the Division Series.
- Tampa will follow Rasmussen with Freddy Peralta and Nick Martinez for Games 2 and 3.
The American League Championship Series begins tomorrow at 7pm CT as the top-seeded Tampa Bay Rays host the Cleveland Guardians in a seven-game set. Tampa has tabbed ace Drew Rasmussen to start Game 1, while the Guardians enter the series without an officially announced starter for the opener.
Drew Rasmussen and the Rested Tampa Rotation
Pitching anchors both rosters, though the Rays arrive well-rested after sweeping the New York Yankees in three games during the Division Series. Rasmussen emerged as Tampa’s staff ace this year by posting a 2.67 ERA across 30 regular-season starts. He recorded a 21.2% strikeout-minus-walk rate alongside a 43.9% ground ball rate, earning 5.0 wins above replacement from FanGraphs to rank among the Junior Circuit’s top arms.
Tampa will follow Rasmussen with Freddy Peralta and Nick Martinez for Games 2 and 3. Peralta struggled through the first two-thirds of the season before a trade to the Rays, where he finished with a 3.25 ERA over 55 1/3 innings and added 4 2/3 frames of one-run ball in ALDS Game 2. Martinez tossed 180 innings with a 3.10 ERA and issued a league-best 3.6% walk rate among qualified American League starters.
Cleveland Pitching Chaos and Guarded Options
Cleveland reached the ALCS following a taxing five-game Division Series against the Chicago White Sox that required heavy bullpen management. Parker Messick and Gavin Williams each made two starts in that round, with Williams pitching an emergency relief appearance to close out Game 4 before throwing 5 2/3 dominant innings with 12 strikeouts in Game 5. Messick threw 65 pitches in a rocky Game 4 start, leaving his exact Game 1 availability dependent on short rest or a normal turn in Game 2.
The Guardians must also solve their rotation for Games 1 and 4. Foster Griffin, Joey Cantillo, and Tanner Bibee all stand as options for the opening game, with Griffin and Cantillo fully rested after throwing eight and five outs respectively in a Game 3 bullpen game. Meanwhile, Cleveland relies on high-leverage relievers Cade Smith and Hunter Gaddis, while Tampa counters with late-inning arms Bryan Baker and Kevin Kelly.
Offensive Output and Regular Season Splits
Offenses will likely dictate the pace of the series after contrasting performances in the opening round. Tampa matched the White Sox for the fifth-best team wRC+ in the majors at 104 during the regular season, paced by Junior Caminero’s 42 home runs and top-five MVP trajectory. Yandy Díaz and Jonathan Aranda performed 23% to 25% better than league average by wRC+, and Chandler Simpson led the majors with 46 stolen bases while batting over .300.
Cleveland finished below average with a 97 regular-season wRC+, led by Chase DeLauter at 131, Steven Kwan at 114, and Travis Bazzana at 110. José Ramírez endured a down regular season before breaking out in the ALDS alongside Patrick Bailey and Jo Adell. The Guardians generated a 14.3% walk rate during the Division Series to get on base frequently, whereas the Rays walked at a 4.9% clip and compiled a .255 OBP in their sweep.