Tanzania is facing its most significant crisis since independence, marked by political repression, international isolation and a contested reconciliation process following a disputed election. The challenges confronting President Samia Suluhu Hassan in the first 100 days of her second term – from to – have drawn condemnation from international bodies and raised concerns about the country’s democratic trajectory.
A Disputed Election and its Aftermath
President Hassan was inaugurated after securing 97.66% of the vote in an election that the African Union deemed non-compliant with democratic standards. The results triggered widespread protests and a violent crackdown by state forces. According to submissions to the International Criminal Court (ICC), approximately 10,000 extrajudicial killings have occurred in the wake of the election. These allegations, coupled with reports of widespread arrests and suppression of dissent, have prompted a strong international response.
The crisis did not erupt on election day, but was, according to analysis, “engineered over the preceding months through a systematic elimination of credible opposition.” This included the arrest of Chadema chairman Tundu Lissu in on treason charges after he called for electoral reforms. Lissu remains in prison as of , representing himself after alleging that prison authorities have obstructed his access to legal counsel. His most recent hearing was adjourned after he objected to the prosecution’s proposal for secret witnesses.
International Fallout and Restrictions
The United States has responded to the situation by imposing travel restrictions on Tanzanian officials implicated in the post-election violence and repression. This move signals a significant deterioration in relations between the two countries and reflects growing international concern over the human rights situation in Tanzania. The country is also experiencing increasing international isolation as a result of the disputed election and the government’s response to dissent.
A Contested Reconciliation Process
President Hassan’s government has established a state-appointed commission of inquiry, ostensibly to investigate the post-election violence. However, the opposition has rejected the commission, viewing it as a tool to control the narrative and shield the government from accountability. This lack of trust in the reconciliation process further complicates efforts to address the underlying causes of the crisis and restore stability.
Comparing Two Terms
A comparison of President Hassan’s first and second terms reveals a stark shift in priorities and leadership style. Her initial term, which began after the death of her predecessor, Dr. John Magufuli, was characterized by efforts to stabilize governance and heal a nation grappling with political and institutional tensions. She distinguished herself by promoting a more balanced approach to state institutions, pardoning 36 Uamsho prisoners who had been detained for nearly eight years, halting the enforcement of abusive taxes, and directing the Prevention and Combating of Corruption Bureau (PCCB) to withdraw politically motivated cases, leading to the dismissal of 47 charges.
The initial 100 days of her first term were marked by a sense of hope and reassurance. Citizens across various sectors – business, civil service, and communities – perceived a new approach rooted in listening, empathy, and accountability. However, the current climate stands in stark contrast to that earlier period, with the government facing accusations of authoritarianism and widespread human rights abuses.
Intelligence and Security Implications
The current crisis has significant intelligence and security implications for Tanzania and the wider East African region. The violent aftermath of the election and the ongoing repression of dissent create a breeding ground for instability and potential radicalization. The extrajudicial killings and arbitrary arrests are likely to fuel resentment and could lead to further unrest. The situation also raises concerns about the potential for spillover effects into neighboring countries.
A Descent into Repression
Observers note a concerning trend of democratic decay in Tanzania, a development that extends beyond a national tragedy. While Africa has experienced economic growth and increased investment, governance and security trends are moving in the wrong direction. The recent crisis in Tanzania serves as a stark warning of how quickly progress can be eroded, highlighting the fragility of democratic institutions and the importance of upholding the rule of law.
The Economist, in a recent assessment, described Samia Suluhu Hassan as Africa’s newest despot, underscoring the severity of the situation and the international community’s growing alarm. The events unfolding in Tanzania represent a significant setback for democratic progress in Africa and raise serious questions about the future of the country.
