Taro Kono’s Stunning Fall: How Japan’s ‘Reformist’ Hopeful Became a Battleground for the Last Seat

Taro Kono’s support for the Liberal Democratic Party’s presidential election is slow. Journalist Hiroshi Samejima said, “Although he has maintained high popularity as a person suitable to become the next prime minister,” he has fallen so low that he is fighting for the last place in the current presidential election, Mr. Kono himself a reformer, has become a “clique.” “That’s because he was so fixated on the idea that he could not free himself from the mentality of a hereditary politician.”

Photo = Jiji Photo Print

Digital Minister Taro Kono speaks with a panel in hand at the debate on candidates for the Liberal Democratic Party’s presidential election on September 14, 2024, at the Japan Press Club in Chiyoda-ku, Tokyo[Foto rappresentativa]

He was the most popular candidate in the presidential election three years ago…

In the Liberal Democratic Party presidential election (votes counted on September 23), which featured a record nine candidates, Digital Minister Taro Kono quickly dropped out of the presidential race. This is an unexpected turn of events, as the party has little support among Diet members and party members and is fighting for the last spot.

In the presidential election three years ago, he ranked first in popular opinion polls. The momentum they gained in the past as “reformists” is gone and they are wandering in vain. If things continue like this, he runs the risk of suffering a crushing defeat in the presidential election and ending his political career.

There is no doubt that Kono approached the presidential election after careful preparation. He won the support of Vice President Taro Aso and ran for the second faction, the Aso faction. Believing that he would not have the support of the largest faction, the Abe faction, he aimed to expand support by announcing that he would ask secretly funded members to “return the money.”

Abolishing the year-end tax adjustment and making all taxpayers use their My Number cards to file tax returns, moving the University of Tokyo and Hitotsubashi University to regional areas… These bold proposals that have been put forward one after another have not met with fierce public reaction, and almost none. Don’t be treated as an opponent. No one listens to Mr. Kono, who has no hope of winning.

Where the hell did I go wrong? I think the main reason for Kono’s failure was the vested interest characteristic of hereditary politicians.

We explain it in detail below. Let’s start with the latest developments in the presidential election.

The presidential election will be a battle between Mr. Ishiba, Mr. Koizumi and Mr. Takaichi.

The race for the presidency has been narrowed to three candidates: former Environment Minister Shinjiro Koizumi as the “favorite,” former Secretary-General Shigeru Ishiba as the “opponent,” and Economy and Security Minister Sanae Takaichi as the “favorite.” “Long shot.” Koizumi is ahead in Diet member votes, but is slow in party members and allies’ votes. On the other hand, Ishiba and Takaichi are competing for the lead in party membership votes, but do not enjoy widespread support among Diet members.

Who will advance to the final election among the top two candidates? In the runoff, the votes of Diet members will carry a lot of weight, and if Koizumi wins, his lead will be assured. However, there is a possibility that Koizumi could finish in third place in the first round of voting. In that case, there would be a clash between Mr. Ishiba, who is unpopular among Diet members, and Mr. Takaichi, and it would not be surprising to see who wins.

After the first three, the second group consists of former Economy and Security Minister Takayuki Kobayashi, Chief Cabinet Secretary Yoshimasa Hayashi, Secretary-General Toshimitsu Mogi and Foreign Minister Yoko Kamikawa. Mr. Kobayashi ranks second to Mr. Koizumi in the votes of Diet members, especially among the younger mid-level members of the largest Abe faction, but his unrecognized name cannot be denied, and he lags behind in the votes of party members and friends.

Mr. Hayashi is winning solid votes among Diet members, mainly with the support of the fourth faction, the Kishida faction, and Mr. Motegi is supported by the third faction, the Motegi faction, but is having difficulty winning votes among party members. All of them are far behind the three candidates in the first group and it seems difficult for them to make it to the final election.