Therdsak Thaweethiratham Mr Deputy Managing Director, Research Division Asia Plus Securities Company Limited He revealed that in the second quarter of 2024, the Thai stock market has an opportunity to pass its lowest point, looking at the SET in the second quarter at a level of 1,350 points, which is a time when it is appropriate to buy gradually. Or there may be a recovery back above the level of 1,450 points, with a PER value in 2024 at 16.6 times (-1SD in 10 years) and the lowest level after the Covid crisis in 2020, while in terms of PBV, it has worth 1.31 times (-2SD in 10 years) and estimates the SET for the whole year 2024 at a level of 1,570-1,580 points.
In terms of the investment strategy, the SET varies around 1,350 points with an interesting valuation It is recommended that stocks gradually recover following the economy, such as construction materials stocks. or shares in the estate Including stocks that can make a profit, listed companies have strong growth with impressive stock views. C. Karnchang Public Company Limited or CK, Siam City Cement Public Company Limited or SCCC, Muangdhai Capital Public Company Limited or MTC, Berli Jucker Public Company Limited or BJC, Kasikorn Bank Public Company Limitedor KBANK
While the stocks with outstanding returns in 2Q2024 are: PTT Global Chemical Public Company Limited or PTTGC, B.Grimm Power Public Company Limited or BGRIM
In this regard, the Thai stock market is assessed to be more attractive for investment. Regarding the profit of listed companies for the 1st quarter of 2024, which has the opportunity to grow strongly. plus a supportive exchange rate gain From a lower than normal profit base for 4th quarter 2023 plus a supportive exchange rate gain After the baht weakened by more than 7% during the first quarter, stocks that benefited from the weaker baht accounting for more than 40% of the market cap, as well as the world crude oil price rising more than 15% from the previous quarter, supporting the Stock Gains in Commodity stocks with a large market share
It also builds confidence in the stability of the Thai stock market. To support this, trading volumes will gradually return after the authorities increased trading hours from 4.5 hours a day to 5 hours a day. And measures to supervise and examine Short Selling, Trading Programs, are expected to come into force in the second quarter of 2024, supporting SET Turnover to have a chance to return above 70% per year.
In addition, we began to see many factors helping to support the economy. Intensive fiscal policy by speeding up the payment of the 2024 budget within only 5-6 months with a value of 3.48 trillion baht, 9.3% higher than the previous year, which predicts that Thailand’s GDP GROWTH will grow at 2.6-2.8% if the budget can be paid It can be paid before May 2024 and must have an investment budget of at least 20%.
Including various government stimulus measures, including increasing the minimum wage to 400 baht and free VISA fees for tourists. and the distribution of 10,000 baht digital currency in the next step The international fund is strong. As a result, money will continue to flow.
while foreign factors Looking at the trend of the Middle East war, it may not intensify. which has the restraint of the parties It may not be able to expand widely. But if there is a wider expansion It will lead to an increase in the price of energy. Push inflation has not abated, however. Still waiting for a more accommodative monetary policy. Although US interest rates may remain at 5.5% for a longer period after inflation is higher than expected. But the downward interest rate cycle will probably begin to be seen during the rest of this year.
sideMiss Lapphon Panakul Director of Secondary Market Products The bond market is expected in the remaining three quarters of this year. There will be a downward movement due to the expectation that the Bank of Thailand or the National Bank will start reducing the policy interest rate from the current level of 2.50% down to 2.00-2.25%. The National Bank will begin to reduce interest rates Mid-year and lower Regarding the value of problem bonds at the end of the first quarter of 2024, the total value was about 122,271 million baht, accounting for 2.70% of the outstanding value of long-term private sector debt instruments. which is still considered a small proportion Overall, bonds in the market are still considered a stable and safe option.
Therefore, it is an appropriate investment strategy for the rest of this year. Under market conditions where interest rates tend to fall, that is, gradually building up to buy bonds during periods when interest rates are still high and buying in line with investment objectives, that is, if he buys to invest and hold until maturity. Can choose long term bonds or if the customer can accept more risk. You can invest in bonds that do not have a very high credit rating. to get more returns But if you are buying to make a quick profit or for trading, you should choose bonds with a credit rating of A- or higher and with a maturity of no more than 3 years because they are a group that institutional investors like to invest in it.
MeanwhileMr Bamrungphong Chewthanakornkul The Senior Director of the Investment Department revealed that foreign stock markets face obstacles in reducing interest rates. Recommend gradual accumulation of US stocks during market contraction, focusing on balancing the portfolio between tech groups that benefit from AI stocks and non-tech stocks.
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