situationThai bond marketThere are still issues that need to be monitored. In particular, risks to the global economy began to rise after the US Federal Reserve (Fed) continued to advance.arouse interestpolicy to control inflation that these factors can affect the publisherbondalso
Mr. Somjin Sornpaisarn Managing Director Thai Bond Market Association(ThaiBMA) revealed that the world economy is at risk of going into recession. and rising interest rates affect the new private debenture issuance plan Especially those issued to replace the old bonds (rollover) because they will have higher financial costs. The risk that must be monitored is high interest bonds (high yield bonds) which can also cause default problems.
The society is of the opinion that it is still a factor that needs to be monitored. but believe that he will be able to take care of the two supervisors Publisher and Buyer At the same time, there is no signal.High Yield Bondsfailed on additional debt As of now, there are only 2-3 cases left, and these cases are in the process of solving problems. no worries
Even if the publisher is in the groupreal estateThere may be more such risks, but it was found that bonds in the real estate sector The portion is debentures with collateral. And there are signs of an improving Thai economy, which continues to benefit the private sector. In addition, next year will start using new rules. investor group Companies and large institutions that the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) stipulates that, in addition to having money, they must first have a lot of knowledge about investing in risky assets. This is to protect against such risks for small investors.
Mr Somjin said the interest rate trend continues to rise next year. cause the private sector to continueissue debenturesto close costs It is expected, in the fourth quarter of this year, that the value of issuing private bonds will be. no less than 300 billion baht from the last period, the private sector has filed for sale for no less than 50 billion baht and has a valueprivate bondThat will be due in the last quarter of this year for another 130 billion baht.
Therefore, we are confident that 2022 will be the third year that the value of bond issuance will exceed 1 trillion baht, or no less than 1.2-130 billion baht, the highest level ever. as expected
For the first nine months of this year, the value was 997 billion baht, an increase of 22% from the same period last year, or 96% of the value of the publication last year for the whole year. In the form of digital bonds, the share has started to increase, during the first 9 months of this year A total of nine digital bonds were offered, including the initial offer at the end of last year. done so far 10 digital debentures are offered for sale on the “Pao Tang” application with a total value of 31,095 million baht. This is a new offering channel that increases investment opportunities.bondto general investors
At the same time, the addressinterest rate riseand the risk of next year increases making public and private There is an inevitable increase in the cost of raising capital in the bond market which requires risk compensation. But now the cost of government bonds is about 1% more than private bonds. The cost has increased by 3-4%, but is still lower. Compared to the cost of a loan for financial institutions MLR at 7%
In addition, the trendforeign capital(Fund) In the Thai bond market, it is still an outflow direction. of the Fed raising interest rates But Thailand’s policy interest rates have gradually increased, but foreign currency flows should not be a concern because during the past 3 quarters. There is an average outflow of about 20 billion baht per quarter. it did not accelerate, causing shock
In addition, foreign money flowed out of the Thai bond market. It is also consistent with the flow of foreign funds flowing from other Asian countries as well. because from the beginning of the year the baht depreciated by -14% was a moderate depreciation. and in line with the devaluation of other currencies in the region.
In July, foreign funds flow Net sales of Thai bonds continued from Q2 after the Fed raised its policy rate by 0.75% for the second time. before returning to buy a small net in August.
But it became clear in September that the Fed would continue to raise interest rates at high rates. Therefore, Thai bonds have been sold since mid-September. So, in the third quarter, it was a net sale of Thai bonds from foreign investors.
At the end of the third quarter of 2022, foreign investors had cumulative net sales since the beginning of the year at 32.5 billion baht, with holdings of Thai bonds equal to 989 billion baht, a slight decrease from the end of last year. accounts for 6.3% of the outstanding value of the Thai bond market. The average maturity of bonds held by foreign investors is 8.5 years, which is still stable in the Thai bond market.
