Thailand is pursuing a more assertive diplomatic strategy toward Myanmar, aiming to reintegrate the nation into the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) despite the legitimacy concerns surrounding its recent elections and the ongoing political crisis. This shift, spearheaded by Caretaker Foreign Minister Sihasak Phuangketkeow, represents a departure from Thailand’s traditionally ‘quiet diplomacy’ with its neighbor and signals a willingness to engage directly with the ruling military junta.
Last Wednesday, , Minister Sihasak formally met with his Myanmar counterpart, Than Swe, in Phuket. According to international media reports, Sihasak stated Thailand’s intention to act as a “bridge” to facilitate Myanmar’s return to ASEAN, from which it has been largely excluded since the coup. This engagement, however, does not equate to acceptance of the outcome of Myanmar’s January elections, which were widely criticized as being neither free nor fair.
The move comes at a complex juncture. Just days before the meeting, Myanmar’s government demanded the departure of the head of Timor-Leste’s diplomatic mission, following Dili’s acceptance of a petition from the Chin State Human Rights Organization (CHRO) alleging genocide committed by the junta since the coup. This incident underscores the sensitivity surrounding engagement with Myanmar and the potential for backlash from those critical of the military regime.
For years, Thailand has relied on discreet diplomatic efforts to influence Myanmar, with Thai foreign ministers and lobbyists frequently traveling to Nay Pyi Taw to urge cooperation with ASEAN’s peace plan. These efforts have largely proven unsuccessful, suggesting a reassessment of strategy was necessary. The current approach acknowledges that Thailand’s leverage may be less substantial than previously believed.
Myanmar’s geopolitical landscape has significantly evolved in recent decades. No longer isolated, the country has cultivated strong relationships with Russia, China, and India, providing the junta with alternative sources of support and diminishing the influence of traditional Western partners and ASEAN member states. This new dynamic complicates Thailand’s efforts to re-engage Myanmar and necessitates a more nuanced approach.
Historically, Thailand’s policy toward Myanmar has focused primarily on state-to-state relations, prioritizing engagement with military-backed administrations and increasing Thai investment within the country. This strategy has been accompanied by a reduction in engagement with ethnic groups along the border, a shift that has proven counterproductive in addressing regional challenges.
The coup fundamentally altered this dynamic. Some ethnic groups have aligned themselves with anti-government resistance forces, while others, particularly in North Shan State, have forged closer ties with China. Beijing has skillfully pursued a dual-track diplomatic strategy, maintaining relations with the junta while simultaneously fostering cooperation with border ethnic groups. This approach facilitated China’s success in dismantling scam networks operating in Shan State last year, a problem that has also affected Thailand.
In contrast, Thailand’s dual-track approach has yielded limited results, failing to secure cooperation from ethnic groups in combating scams or addressing environmental concerns such as arsenic contamination from rare-earth mining along the border. This lack of effectiveness highlights the need for a recalibrated strategy.
Experts and critics are urging the Thai government to re-establish connections with ethnic groups, mirroring the approach adopted several decades ago. This could involve providing direct humanitarian assistance and fostering more constructive dialogue. The appointment of Minister Sihasak and his willingness to engage openly offer a potential pathway toward a more balanced and effective diplomatic strategy.
The success of this new approach remains uncertain. Myanmar’s military government has demonstrated a stubborn resistance to external pressure. However, Thailand’s willingness to adopt a more proactive and publicly visible diplomatic stance represents a significant shift in policy and offers a glimmer of hope for a more constructive engagement with Myanmar, one that potentially benefits the broader region.
