Thaioil Weekly Oil Market and Forecast as of 12 September 2022

The price of crude oil varies. due to concerns about the shrinking global economy The market is expected to be supported by a gas-to-oil switch after European gas prices rise.

Thai Oil expects West Texas crude oil prices to move in the range of 80-92 USD per barrel this week.
Brent crude oil is moving in the range of 90 – $102 per barrel.

Crude oil price situation trend (12 – 16 September 20)

The price of crude oil varies. After the European Central Bank (ECB) decided to raise interest rates by 0.75% in the previous meeting. Meanwhile, the United States Federal Reserve Bank (FED) is likely to raise interest rates also at the meeting on 20-21 September 65, causing the market to worry about the global economic contraction. and pressure on world oil demand Like the situation of the COVID-19 epidemic In China, there is no better trend. In addition, lockdown measures have been extended and austerity measures have been increased in key cities following the zero COVID policy, however, crude oil prices were driven by higher gas prices. because supply tends to be tight After Russia announced that it would stop all gas exports to Europe. If Europe continues to impose sanctions on Russia and consumers are more likely to use winter oil instead of natural gas (gas-to-oil switch).

Important factors expected to affect the oil price situation this week.

– The meeting of the European Central Bank on September 8, 65 decided to raise interest rates by 0.75% after it raised interest rates by 50 bps or 0.5% in the previous meeting. In order to curb European inflation, which rose to 9.1% yoy in August 65, an increase of nine months, while the meeting of the Federal Reserve (FED) on 20- September 21, 65 The Fed is expected to raise interest rates another 75 bps or 0.75% too. As a result, the market is worried about the global economic slowdown. and it can put pressure on the demand for oil in the world

– The COVID-19 epidemic situation in China continues to put pressure on the market. After China announced the expansion of lockdown measures. and speeding up testing for more than 21.2 million people in Chengdu which is one of China’s main economic cities The city of Shenzhen continues to take strict measures to limit travel to stop the spread. As a result, the market is worried about the recovery of world oil demand.

– Russia announced the suspension of all gas exports to Europe. This includes supplying gas to Germany via the Nord Stream 1 pipeline, although it completed a maintenance shutdown in early September. 65 in the past Russia claims it has technical difficulties and has no clear resumption of action or until Europe lifts sanctions on Russia. As a result, gas prices tend to rise. of tight supply And it may make consumers prepare to switch to oil instead of natural gas more in the coming winter.

– EU to discuss setting Russian gas prices to limit Russian gas export earnings On 2 September, the G7 leaders formally announced the measure against Russian oil prices, however, the measure was not widely adopted. The group is persuading many countries to implement joint price fixing measures, especially countries that mainly import oil from Russia, such as China, India, and others, in order to have the greatest impact on Russia’s income. It will be applied during the same period as Russia’s ban on imports of crude oil (5 December 65) and refined oil (5 February 66) as Russia retaliates by stopping oil and gas exports to the countries where measures are in place such are taken

– The market is still watching. the possibility of exporting Russian oil After an international sanction of Russian oil trading, the FGE report on August 65 predicted Russian crude exports to Asian countries. China and India, in particular, are likely to increase by more than 1.4 million barrels per day by the end of this year. This is the deadline to ban the sale of Russian oil by the United States. European and International

– The economy to watch this week is the European Economic Confidence Index for September. 65 The market outlook is likely to decrease from the previous month at 54.9 and the announcement of core inflation (core CPI) in the United States for August 65, and the market is expected to be slightly lower than the previous month at a level of 5.9% yoy

Summary of the oil price situation last week (5 – 9 September 65)

West Texas crude fell $86.87 a barrel to $86.79 a barrel, while Brent crude fell $93.02 a barrel to $92.84.Dubai crude oil prices averaged $90.61 a barrel, as China continued to expand its lockdown and austerity measures in Chengdu and other cities. another to control the spread affecting the crude oil market The United States Petroleum Energy Institute (API) reported US crude stocks. The week ending September 02, 65, increased by 3.6 million barrels, contrary to analysts’ expectations for a decrease of 7.3 million barrels, However, the market remains concerned about tight supply after OPEC+ decided cutting production by 100,000 barrels per day, or 0.1% of global oil demand at the last meeting.