Thaioil Weekly Oil Market and Outlook as of 1 August 2022

Thai Oil expects West Texas crude to move at a range of 90-110 US dollars a barrel, while Brent crude moves at a range of 95-115 dollars a barrel.

Trend of crude oil price situation (1-5 Aug 65)

Crude oil prices remained volatile after the US announced its second straight quarter of GDP decline in 65, reflecting a technical recession. Meanwhile, the US Federal Reserve (FED) continued to raise interest rates to 0.75% in an effort to curb rising inflation. This caused the market to worry about the global economic recession and affect the demand for oil. As Libya crude oil production resumes After announcing the cancellation of the force majeure, however, the market is still keeping an eye on the OPEC+ meeting that the group may not be able to raise more than planned capacity. As a result, the market remains concerned about the tight supply of crude oil.

Important factors that are expected to affect the oil price situation this week.

– The US GDP figure for 2Q22 decreased by 0.90% compared to the previous quarter (QoQ), which is a decline for two consecutive quarters, reflecting the US economy. into a technical recession While the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting of the US Federal Reserve (FED) on July 26-27, 65 passed a resolution to raise the policy rate at 75 bps or 0.75%, resulting in interest rates. of the United States increased to the level of 2.25-2.50% in the short term US interest rate hike Can attract foreign investors to invest in US government bonds. that yields higher As a result, the US dollar appreciated while in the long term. Fast and Consecutive Interest Rate Raises This could affect global economic growth and oil demand.

– IMF (July report 65) Downgraded global economic growth forecast (GDP) this year by 0.4% from the previous forecast to 3.2% due to the Russian-Ukrainian conflict. The situation of the epidemic of the Covid-19 virus in China and rising inflation in many countries around the world. This caused central banks around the world to take measures to tighten their finances by raising interest rates. slowing global economic growth Resulting in pressure on the recovery of oil demand.

– Libya’s crude oil production rose to 860,000 bpd. After the Libyan National Oil Company (NOC) announced the cancellation of force majeure at several oil fields. Meanwhile, Libya expects domestic crude oil production to rise to a normal level of 1.2 million barrels per day by mid-August. 65 Libya’s return to crude oil production and exports help alleviate the tight raw water supply

– The market is keeping an eye on the OPEC+ meeting to be held on August 3, 65, with the market speculating that the group may not be able to increase production beyond plans. Due to constraints on spare capacity, crude oil supply tends to be tight.

– Russia has announced that it will not export oil and natural gas to countries that use price caps on Russian oil. After the United States and Europe considers such measures. to limit the income of Russian oil exports But it can also bring Russian oil to the market. However, the measure requires cooperation from countries other than member states. China and India may not cooperate with the price fixing measures because the two countries continuously import oil from Russia. And it could be retaliated against by Russia by halting oil and gas exports to Europe.

– Gazprom has cut its natural gas exports through the Nord Stream 1 pipeline to 20% of its capacity after it resumed exports of around 40% of its capacity. After a maintenance shutdown between 11 and 21 July, the EU is preparing a plan to import natural gas from other sources instead of Russia to increase its stockpile up to 80 percent of its production capacity. before entering the winter at the end of the year Consequently, natural gas prices tend to rise due to tight supply. As a result, more consumers turn to use oil instead of natural gas.

– Economics to watch this week include China’s July manufacturing manufacturing index (PMI), which markets expect may slightly increase from the previous month to 50.5, and the unemployment rate in June. Y. 65 of Europe, where markets are expected to rise 6.8%, compared with 6.6% in the previous month.

Summary of the oil price situation last week (25-29 Jul 65)

West Texas crude rose $1.92 a barrel last week to $98.62 a barrel, as well as Brent crude rose $4.86 to $110.01 a barrel. Dubai crude oil averaged at 107.35 US dollars per barrel as the market continues to worry about the economic slowdown after the IMF cuts world GDP in 2022. The US has announced that the economic data has dropped more than expected. while the price of crude oil is pressured As Libya resumes crude oil production coupled with the United States Announcing plans to sell more than 20 million barrels of crude oil from strategic reserves (SPR) to help alleviate tight crude supply