Thaioil Weekly Oil Market and Outlook as of 25 July 2022

Thai Oil expects West Texas crude to move in the range of $90-100 per barrel, while Brent crude is in the range of 98-108 USD per barrel.

Trend of crude oil price situation (25-29 Jul.22)

Crude oil prices are expected to fluctuate in a narrow range. After the US Federal Reserve (FED) prepares to raise the policy interest rate by 0.75% – 1.00%, causing the US dollar to appreciate, coupled with the situation of the Covid-19 epidemic. that found more new germs And recently, China has returned to use strict measures according to the Covid-free policy to control the epidemic in the country again. affecting the recovery of world oil demand Meanwhile, the crude oil market was also supported by tight supply. and the amount of US crude oil inventories that tends to decline continuously due to the increasing demand for crude oil

Important factors that are expected to affect the oil price situation this week.

– Meeting of the Central Monetary Policy Committee (FOMC) of the US Federal Reserve (FED) On July 26-27, 65, the market expects the Fed to likely raise the policy interest rate by 0.75 – 1.00% to 2.25 – 2.75% to curb inflation after the Consumer Price Index (CPI). of the United States continued to increase Most recently, the number of June 65 increased by 9.1% compared to the same period of the previous year (yoy), which was the highest increase in 40 years, as was the case with the European Central Bank (ECB) to raise the rate. interest This will result in oil prices being pressured by the US dollar. strengthening

– natural gas pipeline Nord Stream 1 It is expected to resume operations at 30% of capacity. After the maintenance from 11 to 21 July, however, the EU is concerned that Russia may not deliver natural gas. This will affect the industrial sector and economic activity of Europe. As a result, the EU resolved to propose member states to reduce natural gas consumption by 15% during the month of Aug. 65 – Mar. 66, compared to the average consumption in the same period before.

– The crude oil market is also supported by tight supply. After a meeting between US President Joe Biden and Crown Prince Bill Salman in Riyadh, Saudi Arabia Still can’t find a deal. As Saudi Arabia said the capacity increase would need to be discussed within OPEC and allied nations.OPEC+) and the spare capacity (Spare capacity) is at a low level.

– US crude oil production tends to increase slightly After producers increased their crude drilling, Baker Hughes reported that the volume of crude and natural gas rigs for the week ended July 15 increased by four to 756, the highest level since. Since Mar. 63, the latest US Energy Information Administration US crude oil production forecast will increase to 12.34 million barrels per day in 4Q22, higher than the current production volume of 11.9 million barrels per day.

– The situation of the epidemic of COVID in China is still severe. After finding the number of infected people continued to increase. The latest reports show more than 1,000 cases for the first time since May, raising market concerns that the Chinese government may announce a new lockdown. to control the spread which has an impact on economic growth Most recently, many financial institutions cut their economic growth this year to 3.4 percent, lower than the previous forecast of 5.5 percent. Meanwhile, China has issued a stimulus package worth $45 billion. to support economic recovery

– US crude oil inventory For the week ending July 15, it was down 0.78 million barrels, more than the previous week’s drop of 0.26 million barrels. will continue to decline due to increased demand for crude oil

– The economy to watch this week is the US GDP. It is expected to increase slightly from the previous quarter. US Federal Reserve meeting Between 26-27 July 65, it is expected to signal a rate hike. and the GDP numbers of Germany and Japan.

Summary of the oil price situation last week (18-22 Jul 65)

West Texas Intermediate crude fell $7.90 to $94.70 a barrel, as well as Brent, which dropped $5.94 to $103.20 a barrel. Dubai crude settled at 102.55 USD a barrel on the back of a weaker dollar, which has attracted more interest in other currency holders in crude oil futures. Crude-producing nations have made no clear promises of a production boost following US President Joe Biden’s visit to Saudi Arabia and concerns about a halt to Russian natural gas through the Nord Stream 1 pipeline following the end of maintenance. On 21 Jul 65