The Age of Autonomous Warfare: A New Blueprint for US Drone Doctrine and Industry

The United States must overhaul its military doctrine, force structure, and industrial strategy to prioritize autonomous and attritable drones, according to an analysis by Matthew Creedican and a former U.S. Special Operations veteran identified as Xen. The authors argue that the conflict in Ukraine has proven that small drones are now decisive instruments of combat rather than supporting tools, rendering legacy assumptions about the role of the rifleman obsolete.

Department of War is already pivoting the Pentagon and industrial base toward a wartime footing via a modernization program exceeding $50B+. The goal is to ensure every warfighter has access to low-cost, small unmanned aircraft systems (sUAS). However, the authors contend that current procurement targets of roughly half a million drones per year are insufficient, suggesting a requirement of at least fifty million units to equip a force of ~500,000-1,000,000 personnel.

Proposed Structure for a Modern Drone Force

The analysis describes a model for a drone-centric battalion consisting of 50 to 100 mixed-role unmanned systems deployable simultaneously, supported by stocks of thousands of replacement vehicles and spare parts. This force would include rotary and fixed-wing drones for reconnaissance, electronic warfare, one-way attack (OWA), and bomber tasks, capable of targeting assets up to 300km away.

The authors base these recommendations on current Ukrainian formations, which they categorize by range:

• Tactical/Infantry: Quadcopters operating 3-10km from the front, with some glide-kit versions reaching over 50km.
• Logistics: Ground drones handling evacuations and supplies in the 9-15km “gray zone” where manned vehicles are deemed too risky.
• Operational: Dedicated drone battalions operating from 10-20km behind no man’s land, reaching targets up to 300km.
• Deep Strike: Specialized teams utilizing low-cost platforms to hit strategic targets beyond 1,500km.

According to the authors, the fundamental unit of combat power has shifted from the individual rifleman to the small drone team.

U.S. Industrial Base and Production Gaps

The authors claim the West currently lacks the industrial base to match adversarial scaling. They point to China as the primary manufacturer of global drone components, estimating that China may build the equivalent of a hundred million drones this year, while Russia and Ukraine are each likely to utilize approximately twenty million.

Projections for AI and Autonomous Combat

The analysis projects a transition toward “tacticians” who remotely command squadrons of autonomous drones via AI-mediated digital twins of the battlefield. The authors cite the use of cloud-native Common Operating Picture software like Ukraine’s Delta and Palantir’s Maven as early indicators of this shift.

Future capabilities mentioned include the potential for brain-machine interfaces and the use of weaponized human-optional eVTOLs, similar to the Chinese ZR-300 prototype. The authors also note the German army’s purchase of cyborg insect swarms from Swarm Biotactics as evidence of the move toward microscopic drone “clouds” or “smart dust.”

National Defense and Doctrine Reform