“The Bank of Korea will raise the base rate to 1.75% at the Monetary Policy Committee meeting this month”

Securities companies predicted on the 20th that the Bank of Korea would raise the base interest rate by 25bp (1bp = 0.01% point) to 1.75% a year at the Monetary Policy Committee on the 26th.

Securities companies such as KB Securities, Kiwoom Securities, and SK Securities made this forecast based on high inflation in the report published on the same day.

Ahn Ye-ha, a researcher at Kiwoom Securities, predicted a unanimous rate hike at the MPC meeting and said, “At the last meeting, there were voices saying that growth and inflation should be considered in a balanced way, but considering that inflationary pressure is still high, the After that, we will carry out additional hikes.”

Lim Jae-gyun, a researcher at KB Securities, also said, “The consumer price inflation rate was 4.8% in April, the highest since 2008, but is expected to exceed 5% this month.” It was mentioned high.”

“The BOK needs to curb demand by raising interest rates,” he said.

“Even if the BOK lowers the growth rate this time, the consumer price inflation rate is expected to be revised up significantly,” said Shin Er, a researcher at SK Securities. expected

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The market is also paying attention to the fact that the Monetary Policy Committee is the first meeting chaired by the new Bank of Korea Governor Chang-yong Lee.

The market is more accepting of the May interest rate hike as a pre-established fact, noting that Governor Lee recently stated that he is not at a stage to completely rule out the possibility of a ‘big step’ in raising the base rate by 50 basis points at a time.

However, opinions on the possibility of an actual ‘big step’ are divided even in the stock market.

Researcher Ye-ha Ahn said, “I think the possibility of a ‘big step’ hike is small.”

“The MPC could raise interest rates in July following May, and if inflation remains high, it could be raised until August,” he said.

On the other hand, researcher Shin-Eul said, “It is more likely that one 50bp increase is higher than two 25bp increase in the third quarter. It is positive in that it can double the effect of severing the

In addition, “In terms of the scenario of 2 ‘baby step’ (25bp increase), the 7th rate hike will be carried out at the 9th meeting of the MPC from August last year to August of this year. There is,” he added.

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